Alberta separatists make their case ahead of 19 October independence referendum

Right · 2Albertans vote on Monday 19 October in a referendum with 10 questions, one of which asks whether the province should begin the legal process toward a binding referendum on separating from Canada. 1 2 Right · 1AFP reports that polling indicates fewer than a quarter of Alberta's roughly five million people want independence, but Mitch Sylvestre, head of the Alberta Prosperity Project, said he would not be surprised to win and would be very surprised by less than 40 per cent. 2 Right · 1The National Post describes a September separatist gathering near Calgary airport, called Capitalism and Morality and hosted by the investment advisory firm Econ Americas, attended by about 100 people including prominent figures in the pro-independence movement. 1

Right · 1Attendees included libertarian pundits, free-speech campus advocates, American gun-rights lobbyists and anti-vaccine activists. The Post says they share a belief that Canada is in serious disrepair, rooted in ideas of small government, God's supremacy and individual rights. 1 Right · 1Podcaster and former Libertarian Party of Canada deputy leader Darcy Gerow argued for an anarcho-capitalist Alberta with fully privatized public services, saying secession is the right step but only one piece of the puzzle. 1 Right · 1Former UCP MLA Drew Barnes, ousted from Jason Kenney's caucus in 2021, said he wants a new federal party, Alberta Now, to run in Alberta's 37 ridings and represent the province in the way the Bloc Québécois represents Quebec. The Post notes the similar Maverick Party won under two per cent of the vote in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2021. 1

Right · 1The Post distinguishes 'pragmatists', who see the referendum as leverage to win concessions from Ottawa such as a provincial police force, gun-owner protections, more control over immigration and an end to equalization, from 'hardcore' separatists who want to leave Canada entirely. 1 Right · 2Premier Danielle Smith and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre both oppose separation. Smith says she will vote against independence, called the non-binding referendum to settle a divisive question, and will begin the binding process of leaving if a majority votes yes, but will not approve another referendum if a majority votes no. 1 2 Right · 1Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Alberta, returned this week to campaign for national unity, saying in a video address that 'We can’t achieve any of this if we are divided'. He has backed a new pipeline, a break from predecessor Justin Trudeau. 2

Right · 1AFP adds a US dimension: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called Alberta a 'natural partner', Alberta Prosperity Project leaders met at the State Department, and the Globe and Mail detailed contacts between Sylvestre's team and Republican operatives. Sylvestre said US interests 'don’t play any role' until separatists win government. 2 Right · 1Syracuse University professor Ryan Griffiths called the movement 'mostly an outlier' because its grievances are chiefly economic, without the linguistic or nationalist element typical of secessionist movements, and said Alberta's case for nationhood looks harder to make than those of Catalans, Scots or Quebecers. 2