Badenoch's Conservatives recover in polls but face a hard route back to power
Ahead of the Conservative conference in Birmingham, two analyses say Kemi Badenoch's position and poll ratings have improved. They also say she faces a strong new Labour leader in Andy Burnham and a Reform UK challenge on the right.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Kemi Badenoch goes into the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham with her leadership secure and her public standing improved, according to analyses from the Daily Express and the BBC. Daily ExpressR “But Mrs Badenoch has no snarling rival. She is the unquestioned master of the shadow cabinet” Read at Daily Express ↗ BBC NewsN “Badenoch goes into the conference with her own position secure in the party.” Read at BBC News ↗ Right · 1The Express cites Ipsos polling in which satisfaction with Badenoch doubled from 14% in September 2025 to 28% now, and her net satisfaction is -18 against -13 for the new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham. Daily ExpressR “In September last year, the figures were dire; just 14% of Britons were satisfied with her performance. In 12 months that has doubled to 28% satisfied.”“the new Prime Minister last month had a net satisfaction rating of -13, only slightly better than Mrs Badenoch’s -18” Read at Daily Express ↗ Right · 1The same Ipsos figures put Reform UK leader Nigel Farage at -37 and Green leader Zack Polanski at -32. They show 63% of 2024 Conservative voters now intending to vote Conservative again, up from 47%, with 22% leaning to Reform, down from 39%. Daily ExpressR “The Greens’ Zack Polanski had a far worse -32, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage far back on -37.”“This September, 63% of the Tory-voting cohort from 2024 said they would vote Conservative again, with the slice planning to back Mr Farage’s party shrinking to 22%.” Read at Daily Express ↗
Mixed · 2Both pieces describe large obstacles. Ipsos found only one in five people think the Conservatives are ready to form the next government and 54% see them as out of date. The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg quotes a shadow cabinet member saying "The problem we still have is trust of the party and the brand". Daily ExpressR “Only one in five people think the Conservatives are ready to form the next Government” Read at Daily Express ↗ BBC NewsN “"The problem we still have is trust of the party and the brand"” Read at BBC News ↗ Mixed · 2The BBC says most of Badenoch's progress came against an unpopular Sir Keir Starmer, and that Burnham, who is proving more appealing to the public for now, is a harder opponent. The Express argues Burnham will not look fresh for long, noting that seven in ten Britons are dissatisfied with the Government. BBC NewsN “it is harder to face an opponent who, at least for now, is proving more appealing to the public” Read at BBC News ↗ Daily ExpressR “Seven out of 10 Britons said they were dissatisfied with the Government” Read at Daily Express ↗ Mixed · 2Reform UK is the central strategic problem in both accounts. Badenoch rejects any pact with Reform, which she dismisses as a party of protest. The BBC says the arithmetic is harder for the Tories while millions of right-leaning voters are tempted by Farage, and the Express calls a divided right-wing vote when Burnham calls an election the "great uncertainty". BBC NewsN “But fundamental arithmetic displays that, for as long as millions of voters on the right are tempted by Farage, it's harder for the Tories to triumph.” Read at BBC News ↗ Daily ExpressR “The great uncertainty is what happens if the Right-wing vote is still divided when Mr Burnham decides it is time for an election, but she is clear she has no interest in pacts with Reform.” Read at Daily Express ↗
Mixed · 2On policy, the BBC expects the conference to open with a proposed large expansion of prison places and a "tough love" approach for young benefit claimants. It also expects Badenoch to set out core conservative principles, which means disowning much of what the party did in office from 2010 to 2024. The Express notes her pledges to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport foreign criminals, and says only one in four Britons consider the Tories "extreme" against 58% for Reform. BBC NewsN “A proposed dramatic expansion of prison places kicks off Badenoch's second big party get-together.”“She'll set out at some length in the coming days what she sees as classic conservative first principles” Read at BBC News ↗ Daily ExpressR “only one in four Britons consider the Tories “extreme”, compared with the 58% who say this about Reform” Read at Daily Express ↗ Mixed · 2The BBC also reports internal worries about tone. One former cabinet minister warns of slipping into "nasty party stuff" and says she must win Cheltenham and Maidenhead as well as Clacton. The Express instead sees little incentive to soften her image, since immigration is a top issue for 2024 Conservative and Reform voters. BBC NewsN “"the big risk – so easy to slip into an alienating divisive manner – nasty party stuff"” Read at BBC News ↗ Daily ExpressR “There is little incentive for her to soften her image when immigration is a top issue for people who backed the Conservatives (73%) or Reform (85%)” Read at Daily Express ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- A Laura Kuenssberg analysis that looks at conference preparation and Badenoch's identity. It weighs her confidence against the party's trust problem and the Burnham and Reform challenges.
- Emphasis
- Insider quotes from Tories, the policy launches (prisons, welfare) and the risk of a return to the "nasty party".
- Leaves out or plays down
- Gives no polling figures.
- Charged language
- “nasty party stuff”“Prison works”
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- An opinion piece that presents Badenoch as strengthened and driven, with polling as evidence, though it calls the road to Number 10 a huge challenge.
- Emphasis
- Ipsos figures on satisfaction, voter retention from Reform, Burnham's likely loss of freshness, and her refusal of pacts.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Says little about internal party worries over trust and the party's brand, or the risk of an alienating tone, which the BBC includes.
- Charged language
- “stronger than ever”“fight of her life”“snarling rival”
- For example
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“Her challenge is immense but her lieutenants admire her straight-talking” — Daily Express
“Mrs Badenoch has seen off one Labour leader and she is pursuing power with a new vigour” — Daily Express
What every side reports
- Badenoch's position as Conservative leader is secure going into the Birmingham conference.
- Her public standing has improved over the past year.
- Andy Burnham is now Prime Minister and a tougher opponent than Starmer was.
- Reform UK and the divided right are the main obstacle to a Conservative return to power, and Badenoch rejects a deal with Reform.
Where accounts differ
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How far the Conservatives have recovered and how hopeful the outlook is
- Centre
- The BBC says the party still has a trust and brand problem, that gains came mostly against an unpopular Starmer, and that Burnham is currently more appealing.
- Right
- The Express says she is "stronger than ever", and that the poll evidence shows moderates are not leaving. It argues Burnham will lose his freshness and that her right-leaning stance is working.
Kemi Badenoch person
Presented as confident and more aggressive about conservative principles. She says the party is "finally saying what we believe", and she rules out pacts with Reform.
“the party was "finally saying what we believe" and "should be more aggressive"” — BBC News
“she is clear she has no interest in pacts with Reform” — Daily Express
Conservative Party party
Backed by a more secure leader and improving polls. The party still faces trust issues and the Reform challenge, and plans a prison and welfare focus at conference.
“"we've still got a whole battle on the right"” — BBC News
“she will assure the Conservative faithful from the conference stage in Birmingham that their party has a true shot at returning to power” — Daily Express
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Kemi Badenoch has cemented her image. Now she wants to put her party back on the big stage
Mixed Analysis that balances Badenoch's greater confidence against the party's trust problem and a more appealing Labour leader.
Right1 article
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Daily ExpressR · · Opinion
Kemi Badenoch is stronger than ever but faces fight of her life to be Prime Minister
Sympathetic Opinion piece that presents Badenoch's poll recovery as proof of strength while acknowledging a long road to power.
- 3 Oct 10:47 First Daily ExpressR Kemi Badenoch is stronger than ever but faces fight of her life to be Prime Minister Opinion
- 3 Oct 11:27 +41m BBC NewsN Kemi Badenoch has cemented her image. Now she wants to put her party back on the big stage
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.