Antigua and Barbuda likely to end citizenship-by-investment scheme under EU pressure

Mixed · 2Antigua and Barbuda is likely to end its citizenship-by-investment program under European Union pressure, which analysts told Reuters threatens a vital revenue stream and could test the future of Caribbean "golden passport" schemes. 1 2 Mixed · 2Prime Minister Gaston Browne said this month that Antigua would "very likely" commit to phasing out the program, after the EU gave Antigua and four other Eastern Caribbean nations until November 12 to agree to close their schemes by June 1, 2028. 1 2 Centre · 1The EU first requested the June 2028 phase-out in June in letters to Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia. 1

Mixed · 2The EU says the programs pose security risks by letting foreigners with few ties to a country obtain citizenship and visa-free entry to the Schengen area. Under a revised EU visa-suspension mechanism, running an investor-citizenship program can itself be grounds for suspending visa-free access, though suspension is not automatic. 1 2 Mixed · 2The programs require investments starting at $200,000 and grant full citizenship rather than temporary residency, typically in exchange for contributions to state funds or investments in approved projects. Buyers have included nationals of China, Russia and Middle Eastern countries who would normally need EU visas, and applicants generally need not live in the Caribbean; demand from Americans has grown since 2020, according to LSE professor Kristin Surak. 1 2 Mixed · 2A 2025 IMF paper found citizenship-by-investment inflows in 2023 equaled about a fifth of the combined GDP of the eight-member Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, and that project investment tied to the programs represented 100% to 170% of officially recorded foreign direct investment across the five countries with such schemes. 1 2

Mixed · 2According to C. Justin Robinson, director of the University of the West Indies Five Islands Campus, citizenship sales are the Antigua government's largest source of non-tax revenue: about $58 million was collected in 2025 and $44.4 million budgeted for 2026, roughly 7% to 11% of recurrent revenue. He estimated that ending the program would erase more than half of Antigua's projected primary surplus this year. 2 1 Mixed · 2Analysts said a suspension of Schengen access could reduce the passports' value, affect ordinary citizens, and force hotels and other developments financed by passport sales to seek fresh capital, delay construction or be abandoned. Robinson said the stakes could be greater in St Kitts and Nevis and Dominica, where inflows have at times exceeded 10% of GDP, calling it an "existential fiscal question". 1 2 Mixed · 2The case could also show how aggressively Brussels will use access to Europe as leverage over other countries' citizenship policies; the EU withdrew Vanuatu's visa-free access in 2024 over concerns about its investor-citizenship scheme. 1 2