US midterms: Democrats favoured in House polling, with Republicans defending more contested seats

Centre · 1Americans vote on 3 November in midterm elections that will shape the rest of Donald Trump's second term, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election. 1 Centre · 1Republicans control both chambers. In the House they hold 218 seats, the exact number needed for control, plus one independent who votes with them. In the Senate they hold 53 of 100 seats, against 45 Democrats and two independents who vote with the Democrats. 1 Centre · 1The BBC says Trump's approval rating is a key reason Democrats have a chance. According to Silver Bulletin it began his term just over 50%, fell into the 40s, dropped below 40% after the late-February air strikes on Iran that he launched with Israel, and is now about 37%. At the same point in their terms, Trump in his first term was at 43% and Joe Biden at 40%. In both cases the president's party lost the House but kept the Senate. 1

Centre · 2Cook Political Report's ratings, used by both outlets, put 21 House districts as toss-ups. The BBC says 15 are held by Republicans and six by Democrats, and that Democrats would win the House by taking five of them on top of 28 districts rated likely or leaning Democratic. 1 2 Centre · 1Newsweek's tally of Cook's 9 October 2026 ratings is 185 Solid Democratic, 16 Likely Democratic and 12 Lean Democratic seats, against 174 Solid Republican, 18 Likely Republican and nine Lean Republican. 2 Centre · 1In the Senate, the BBC reports that Cook rates only seven of the contested seats as toss-ups, six held by Republicans and one by Democrats. Democrats would need four of those plus the four rated likely or leaning Democratic to reach 51 seats. 1

Centre · 1The BBC says Democrats must hold Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in a tighter race than Democrats would like, and must win seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. In Texas, polls suggest James Talarico has a chance against state attorney general Ken Paxton, and would be the first Democrat to win a Senate seat there since 1988. 1 Centre · 1Newsweek compares Cook's House ratings from 12 October 2018, 14 October 2022 and 9 October 2026 with the eventual results. It finds that the 2026 landscape resembles the one before the 2018 Democratic takeover, but with fewer Republican-held districts at risk. In its 'Toss Up or worse' grouping, Republicans held 45 such seats in 2018 against three for Democrats. In 2022 Democrats held 30 and Republicans 12. The 2026 split is 23 Republican-held to 11 Democratic-held. 2 Centre · 1In 2018 Democrats won 235 seats to Republicans' 199, taking 22 of 30 resolved toss-ups and four seats Cook had rated as favouring Republicans. In 2022 Republicans won the House 222 to 213 even though Democrats won 22 of 31 toss-ups, because far more toss-ups were Democratic-held. Newsweek concludes that 2026 is Republican-leaning in exposure but 'not a replay of 2018'. 2

Centre · 1Newsweek cautions that Cook's categories show relative competitiveness rather than guaranteed winners. It says ratings stay fluid until Election Day, and that 2018 and later districts were drawn on different censuses, so equal district numbers can describe different electorates. 2 Centre · 1On issues, the BBC calls the cost of living the key concern. It says gas hit $4 after the Iran war began on 28 February, despite Trump's 24 February claim that it was below $2.30, and that an August poll found 63% disapproved of his handling of the war. Healthcare and immigration are also important to voters. Democrats are campaigning on health insurance costs, and Trump touts lower border crossings. 1 Centre · 1The BBC notes a Republican financial advantage. At the end of August the RNC and allies had over $600m cash on hand against just under $400m for Democrats, plus more than $400m at Trump's MAGA Inc. According to AdImpact, over $1bn in political ads aired in September, with Republicans spending $200m more than Democrats. The BBC adds that Trump's party has outperformed polls before. 1