Black Sea strikes on ports and ships sharply cut Russian and Ukrainian grain exports

Left · 1Strikes on ports and commercial vessels in the Black Sea have sharply cut grain exports from Russia and Ukraine. Analysts estimate their combined wheat exports are down 60 per cent from last year, according to CBC News. 1 Left · 1Maritime analysts say the fighting at sea is the most intense since the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Strikes on commercial vessels have escalated since mid-July. 1 Left · 1The British maritime risk firm Ambrey counted more than 210 strikes on commercial vessels between July and the end of September. It attributed 125 to Ukraine and 88 to Russia. 1

Left · 1Ukrainian port authorities, cited by The Independent, say Russia struck ports more than 70 times in July and early August and hit vessels 62 times. Ukrainian exports fell 75 per cent year on year in the first two weeks of August. 2 Left · 1Russia's Defence Ministry says it targets only military assets. After a strike on a cargo vessel in Chornomorsk, Russian officials accused the ship of supplying the military. 1 Left · 1Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association, says Russia is hitting purely civilian ships. He cites a July missile strike near Odesa on the Golden Leo, which Ukrainian officials said carried corn, that killed ten people. 1

Left · 1Ukraine has also struck Russian targets. In August it hit the port of Novorossiysk, damaging a naval base and two major grain export terminals, and it has targeted vessels linked to Moscow's shadow fleet. 1 Left · 1Russian grain exports have also fallen. Lloyd's List reported Russia's Black Sea grain exports down 65 per cent year on year in July, the lowest level in 15 years. Oxford Economics said Russian export volumes contracted 71 per cent in August. 2 Left · 1Ukraine's position has worsened since August. Oxford Economics economist Evghenia Sleptsova said Ukrainian grain exports were 774,000 tonnes in August and about 1.4m tonnes in September. She said 2026/27 exports look closer to 20m tonnes, roughly half the pre-blockade forecast. 2

Left · 2Sleptsova attributes the collapse to perceived risk rather than closed ports. Underwriters withdrew cover and shipowners stopped calling, so volumes could recover quickly if the attacks stopped. London insurers have also widened the area of the Black Sea they treat as high risk. 2 1 Left · 2Prices are already rising. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization says world wheat prices are up 15 per cent from last year, partly because of Black Sea disruption. Oxford Economics expects the World Bank food price index to rise about 9.3 per cent in 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 11.8 per cent. It calls the disruption a problem of movement rather than availability. 1 2 Left · 2Alternative routes only partly help. The EU's Solidarity Lanes carried 20 per cent of Ukraine's grain and oilseeds in July. Oxford Economics says alternatives could replace only about 17m tonnes of missing grain. CBC reports that Ukraine's own coastal shipping corridor has also been disrupted. 2 1

Left · 2Efforts to restore a Black Sea arrangement have so far failed. Turkey-led attempts at a limited truce have not succeeded. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Turkey, India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern states took part in talks last week. RUSI's Natia Seskuria says a durable reopening is unlikely and a limited, time-constrained deal is more realistic, because the strikes give Moscow political leverage. 1 2 Left · 1Analysts say the crisis comes alongside other shocks, including disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea and drought linked to El Niño. The 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the UN and Turkey, collapsed after a year when Russia refused to renew it. 1