Right-leaning columns say Fed's FRB/US model shows tariffs can lift US growth
A Breitbart Business Digest column, echoed by Hot Air, says the Federal Reserve Board's FRB/US model shows a broad tariff can raise long-run US GDP and investment. The claim comes from opinion writers' own reading of the model, not from a Fed statement.
The story, neutrally told
Right · 1A Breitbart Business Digest column by John Carney, published on 11 November 2026, argues that the Federal Reserve's own economic model says tariffs can boost investment and growth. BreitbartR “Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s Own Economic Model Says Tariffs Can Boost Investment and Growth” Read at Breitbart ↗ Right · 1Hot Air, in a piece by Beege Welborn on 12 November, repeats the argument: tariffs can lift US growth over the long term even when foreigners absorb only a tiny fraction of their cost, according to the Fed's main economic model. Hot AirR “Tariffs can boost U.S. economic growth over the long term even when foreigners absorb just a tiny fraction of their cost, according to the Federal Reserve’s main economic model.” Read at Hot Air ↗ Right · 1The model in question is the Federal Reserve Board's large-scale FRB/US model. Hot AirR “The Federal Reserve Board’s large-scale model, known as FRB/US” Read at Hot Air ↗
Right · 1The piece says it indicates that a broad 10 percent tariff on non-oil goods can leave real GDP about 0.28 percent higher after ten years, if foreign producers absorb just over one percent of the total tariff bill, and that business investment also ends up higher. Hot AirR “a broad 10 percent tariff on non-oil goods can leave real GDP about 0.28 percent higher after ten years if foreign producers absorb just over one percent of the total tariff bill” Read at Hot Air ↗ Right · 1The writers call this striking given what they describe as the economics profession's animosity toward tariffs, and say Fed economists have studied tariff costs at length but done almost no work on the model's growth-adding result. Hot AirR “Economists at the Fed have devoted enormous attention to the costs of tariffs. Yet they’ve done almost no work exploring the fact that the Fed Board’s model shows tariffs adding to growth.” Read at Hot Air ↗ Right · 1They say they found the result while looking at Harvard economist Jason Furman's recently published simulations of "alternative histories", which run scenarios through the Fed's model, such as a larger 2009 stimulus, a smaller American Rescue Plan, or no Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hot AirR “We discovered the results of the Fed’s model while investigating Harvard economist Jason Furman’s recently published simulations of “alternative histories.”” Read at Hot Air ↗
Right · 1Both pieces are opinion; no Fed statement, left-leaning or centrist outlet, or independent economist's response appears in the coverage, so the reading of the model remains the columnists' own and unverified here. Hot AirR “That is a striking result given the mainstream economics profession’s animosity toward tariffs.” Read at Hot Air ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre0 outlets
No centre outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Right2 outlets
- Framing
- Opinion columns present the Fed's own model as undercutting mainstream economists' scepticism of tariffs, with a 'the Fed's own model' angle.
- Emphasis
- A 10 percent tariff on non-oil goods leaving real GDP about 0.28 percent higher after ten years, with higher business investment, and the claim that Fed economists neglect this result.
- Leaves out or plays down
- No Fed response, no critics, no discussion of the model's assumptions (such as the tiny foreign share of tariff costs), and no mention of the short-term costs of tariffs.
- Charged language
- “Can't Have That”“mainstream economics profession’s animosity toward tariffs”“striking result”
What every side reports
- Both outlets say the Fed's main economic model shows tariffs can boost US growth and investment over the long term.
Federal Reserve organisation
The Fed itself is not quoted. The columnists say its economists have studied tariff costs extensively but not the growth-adding result of its own model.
“Economists at the Fed have devoted enormous attention to the costs of tariffs.” — Hot Air
Trump tariffs topic
Presented by the columnists as supported by the Fed's model, which they say shows a long-run gain to GDP and investment.
“Business investment also ends up higher.” — Hot Air
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre0 articles
No coverage yet.
Right2 articles
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BreitbartR · · Opinion
Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s Own Economic Model Says Tariffs Can Boost Investment and Growth
Celebratory Business column whose headline presents the Fed's own model as backing tariffs' benefits for investment and growth.
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Hot AirR · · Opinion
Can't Have That: How the Fed Model Shows Tariffs Boost Growth
Mixed Opinion post summarising the Breitbart finding as a 'striking result' that mainstream economists ignore, with a playful note on Furman's simulations.
- 11 Nov 22:25 First BreitbartR Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s Own Economic Model Says Tariffs Can Boost Investment and Growth Opinion
- 12 Nov 15:00 +16h 35m Hot AirR Can't Have That: How the Fed Model Shows Tariffs Boost Growth Opinion
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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