California billionaire tax, Proposition 40, faces record opposition spending a week before vote

Mixed · 2Californians vote on 3 November on Proposition 40, a one-time 5 percent tax on the assets of the state's billionaires. 1 2 Left · 1Al Jazeera reports that tech billionaires, including Sergey Brin, Tony Xu, Patrick Collison, Chris Larsen, John Doerr, Michael Moritz and Vinod Khosla, have donated more than $300m to oppose the tax, while supporters have raised $32m. Sonoma State's David McCuan says this makes it the most expensive ballot measure ever. 1 Left · 1Brian Galle, a UC Berkeley professor who helped write the measure, said a flyer he received claimed the tax could fall on anyone, including their retirement savings. A volunteer for Patriotic Millionaires, which supports the tax, said voters often tell her it has secret provisions to tax everyone, which she said is "not entirely true". 1

Mixed · 2Democrats are split over the proposition. The state party has endorsed the tax, but Governor Gavin Newsom, gubernatorial nominee Xavier Becerra and former congresswoman Katie Porter oppose it, and Newsom has called it "poorly written". 1 2 Mixed · 2Unions are divided as well. The Washington Examiner says AFSCME, the Teamsters and the California Labor Federation support the tax, the California Teachers Association, California Medical Association and Planned Parenthood oppose it, and statewide SEIU has taken no position, although SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West put it on the ballot. Al Jazeera quotes an SEIU health workers union official saying they are confident of winning, and that 3,000 volunteers have been canvassing. 2 1 Mixed · 2Opponents have also backed two other measures, which the Examiner identifies as Propositions 41 and 42. One bars new state taxes on personal property or imposed retroactively, and the other requires auditors to review tax measures before a vote. If either passes with more votes than Proposition 40, it could void the billionaire tax even if that passes. 1 2

Mixed · 2Polling is mixed. A Public Policy Institute of California poll found a small margin of support for the tax, and also for the two measures opposing it. The Washington Examiner cites a California Post/McLaughlin poll with the tax trailing 32.5% to 52.6% and a Citrin/Politico poll with it ahead 46% to 43%. 1 2 Right · 1The Examiner's opinion pieces argue that the tax would hurt the state. One cites a National Bureau of Economic Research paper by Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh, which found that 85 percent of simulated outcomes gave a negative net present value of state revenues (negative $38.9 billion in its central estimate) because of billionaire departures. It also says the tax would raise an estimated $30 billion. 3 Mixed · 2The Examiner says several wealthy people have left California since the measure was announced, citing a Stanford finding of seven billionaires leaving with some $540 billion in taxable income. Al Jazeera reports that Mark Zuckerberg, who has not donated against the tax, told Meta's board he would buy a home outside California, and that Meta created a new share class he could use to pay the tax. 2 1

Left · 1Al Jazeera frames the money as a democratic fairness problem, quoting Galle and UC Berkeley's Francesco Trebbi on the influence of wealth after Citizens United. Pollster Mark Baldassare noted that only about a third of citizen initiatives pass. McCuan called the contest a proxy fight between progressives and moderates ahead of the 2028 presidential race. 1