Think tank puts benefits and pensions for foreign nationals at £23bn; government disputes figures

Right · 2The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), a Westminster think tank, estimated that about £23bn was spent in 2025 on benefits, pensions and child-related support for non-British nationals. 1 2 Right · 2The CSJ said about 1.85m non-British adults received at least one form of welfare support or the state pension, and projected the bill could approach £27bn by 2030, with the number passing two million. 2 1 Right · 1By the Express's account of the report, about £14.3bn went on working-age benefits for around 1.4m people, £2.9bn on pension-related payments and £5.8bn on child-linked benefits; about 400,000 foreign nationals receive the state pension, around 76,000 of them Pension Credit. 2

Right · 1The CSJ said the number of foreign nationals on Universal Credit has risen 38% since April 2022 to 1.3m, including 745,000 covered by the EU settlement scheme and 537,000 migrants from outside the European Economic Area. 2 Right · 1The researchers used data from the Department for Work and Pensions, HMRC and the Home Office, and said rising claims had accompanied the rise in immigration in recent years. 1 Right · 2Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader who founded the CSJ, said governments had "let unconstrained immigration drive up the welfare bill" and called for restoring "contribution and reciprocity" to the welfare system. 2 1

Right · 2A government spokesperson said it did not recognise the figures, which it said appear to be based on small-sample survey data not robust enough for reliable estimates; the Express adds that the government says the sources were "not intended for this purpose". 1 2 Right · 2The spokesperson also said net migration is down 82% from its 2023 peak, that only people with eligible immigration status can claim taxpayer-funded benefits (around half of those claiming Universal Credit are in work), and that proposals would double the standard qualifying period for settlement to 10 years for most migrants. 1 2 Right · 1Opposition parties used the report to press their own policies: Reform UK's Robert Jenrick called the spending "an outrageous waste of taxpayers' money" and said Reform would end all benefits for migrants, while Conservative shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said the Conservatives would end foreign nationals' access to benefits, saving £9.5bn a year. 2

Right · 1GB News ran a separate analysis rather than the CSJ report: DWP figures obtained by the Centre for Migration Control through a Freedom of Information request show households with at least one foreign national received £11.92bn in Universal Credit in 2025, 15.6% of the total and up from £9.5bn in 2024. 3 Right · 1GB News noted that those figures cover whole households, including mixed households with British citizens, so its comparison with the full new State Pension for almost 950,000 people illustrates scale rather than money that could be redirected. 3 Right · 1The context is a political debate over welfare and settlement: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's stricter settlement rules have drawn backlash within Labour, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he would "get the welfare bill down", with reforms possibly after the Budget. 1