China's September exports rise 36.3%, beating forecasts, as imports climb 31%

Centre · 2China's exports rose 36.3% year on year in September, customs data released on Wednesday 14 October showed, well above the 25.5% growth economists had expected. 1 2 Centre · 2Export growth was the fastest since February, when exports expanded 39.6%, and accelerated from 25% in August. 1 2 Centre · 1Imports increased 31.0%, up from 28.2% in August and above the 24.5% economists had forecast. 1

Centre · 1Anadolu Agency put September exports at $447.18 billion and imports at $313.65 billion, a monthly trade surplus of $133.53 billion, and said imports had their strongest rise since June. 2 Centre · 2Over January–September, exports totalled about $3.37 trillion (up 21.3%) and imports about $2.43 trillion (up 27.5%), giving a surplus of roughly $938 billion; CNA said this puts China on course to pass $1 trillion sooner than last year unless exports slow sharply in the final quarter. 2 1 Centre · 1Anadolu attributed the export strength to global demand for AI-related products, including components for computing systems and data centres, with higher prices also contributing; integrated circuit export value rose 136% while units shipped rose only about 1%. 2

Centre · 1Vehicle exports reached 1.18 million units, up 56.3%, with export value up 62%, and Anadolu said exports to the US rose nearly 39.6%. 2 Centre · 1On the import side, crude oil import volumes fell at a double-digit annual rate for a sixth straight month even as their value rose for the first time since May, and both crude and natural gas volumes were lower over nine months. 2 Centre · 2CNA said overseas demand helped offset weak consumer spending and eased pressure on policymakers to meet this year's 4.5%–5% GDP growth target; Anadolu likewise noted that weak domestic demand makes overseas sales more important. 1 2

Centre · 1CNA also reported that factory-gate prices rose at their fastest pace in over four years in September while consumer inflation edged up but lagged forecasts. 1 Centre · 1On trade policy, CNA said a deal with the European Union to limit Chinese hybrid-vehicle exports, announced earlier this month, is likely to weigh on auto exports over time, though measures expected in December may prompt a rush of shipments; it also noted that a September Xi–Trump summit extended the US–China tariff truce and agreed tariff cuts on $30 billion of goods from each side. 1 Centre · 1CNA said risks of curbs on Chinese exports loom as Washington and Brussels blame Beijing's industrial and monetary policies for its trade surplus; China's central bank last week rejected claims that it keeps the yuan artificially weak. 1