CIS poll puts Spain's Socialists on 34%, ahead of PP on 22.2%, before 29 Nov election
The state-run CIS pollster's October survey gives Spain's ruling Socialists 34% against 22.2% for the opposition PP, in contrast to other polls pointing to a PP–Vox majority ahead of the snap election.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Spain's ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) would win 34% of the vote if elections were held now, ahead of the opposition People's Party (PP) on 22.2%, according to an October survey by the state-run pollster CIS published on Wednesday 14 October. The Straits TimesRC “would win 34% of the vote if elections were held now, well ahead of the opposition People's Party (PP) on 22.2%” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “put Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s party at 34%, nearly 12 percentage points ahead of the Popular Party (PP)” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1Anadolu Agency reports the Socialists' lead is up from 5.5 points last month, as they gained three points while the PP fell. Anadolu AgencyN “compared with a 5.5-point lead last month”“The Socialists gained three points while the PP fell to 22.2%.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Mixed · 2Far-right Vox came third with 17.1%, the Socialists' coalition partner Sumar had 6.1%, and Anadolu reports Podemos at 3.1%. The Straits TimesRC “Far-right party Vox came third with 17.1%” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “followed by the Socialists’ coalition partner Sumar at 6.1% and left-wing Podemos at 3.1%” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Centre · 1Anadolu calculates that the three left-wing parties together would receive around 43%, roughly four points more than the PP and Vox combined. Anadolu AgencyN “Together, the three left-wing parties would receive around 43% of the vote, roughly four points more than the PP and Vox combined.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Right · 1Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was the preferred premier for 39.3% of respondents, 24.6 points ahead of PP leader Alberto Nuñez Feijoo on 14.7%, with Vox leader Santiago Abascal on 13.8%. The Straits TimesRC “Sanchez remains the preferred candidate for the premiership for 39.3% of those surveyed, 24.6 percentage points ahead of PP leader Alberto Nuñez Feijoo at 14.7%.” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Right · 1Housing was named as Spain's main problem by a record 55.7%, about 20 points higher than the previous month, ahead of immigration (20.9%) and the economy (20.3%). The Straits TimesRC “cited by 55.7% as Spain's main problem - record figure and 20 points higher than the previous month”“Immigration ranked second at 20.9%, followed by the state of the economy at 20.3%.” Read at The Straits Times ↗
Mixed · 2The survey, of 5,025 respondents, was conducted in early October during nationwide housing protests, before activist Maricarmen Abascal died on 7 October. Anadolu describes her as an 87-year-old evicted from a home she had rented for seven decades; her death came two weeks after the eviction. The Straits TimesRC “conducted in the first week of October among 5,025 respondents during nationwide protests over the housing crisis” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “an 87-year-old woman forced out of the home she had rented for seven decades who died two weeks later” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1Sanchez called the election for 29 November after parliament rejected the government's housing decrees. Anadolu adds that the unions CCOO and UGT have called a general strike for 11 November. Anadolu AgencyN “Sanchez announced the Nov. 29 election after parliament rejected two government housing decrees.”“have also called a general strike for Nov. 11” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Mixed · 2Other polls point the other way: Reuters says most show a combined majority for the PP and Vox, and Anadolu cites a 40db survey for El Pais and Cadena SER giving them a lead of about 15 points, and an RTVE polling average projecting 202 of 350 seats. The Straits TimesRC “The CIS findings stand in contrast to most other polls, which have pointed to a combined parliamentary majority for the conservative PP and far-right Vox.” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “combined 202 seats in the 350-seat lower house” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Centre · 1Anadolu also cites an El Pais analysis finding that CIS surveys overestimated support for the left in 43 of 44 elections since 2018; its final poll before the 2023 election came close to the Socialists' vote share but wrongly had them ahead of the PP. Anadolu AgencyN “An El Pais analysis of 44 elections since 2018 found that CIS surveys overestimated support for the left in 43 of them.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Anadolu leads on the Socialists widening their lead while housing dominates the debate, and sets the result against rival polls and CIS's track record.
- Emphasis
- Housing crisis, the Abascal eviction, protests, the general strike, and doubts over CIS accuracy.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not give the preferred-premier figures or the ranking of immigration and the economy.
- Charged language
- “public anger”
- For example
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“contrasting with other surveys that favor the right ahead of a snap election dominated by the housing crisis” — Anadolu Agency
“However, the CIS findings contrast sharply with other polls” — Anadolu Agency
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- The Straits Times runs Reuters copy, which presents the poll as a state-run survey in a bullet-point brief and flags that it contrasts with most other polls.
- Emphasis
- Headline numbers, leader preferences, timing relative to the protests and the death of Maricarmen Abascal, and the top concerns.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention Podemos, the unions' strike, or the El Pais analysis of CIS's record.
- Charged language
- “state-run”“far-right”
- For example
-
“Spain's ruling Socialists lead in state-run poll ahead of snap election” — The Straits Times
“The CIS findings stand in contrast to most other polls” — The Straits Times
What every side reports
- CIS put the PSOE at 34% and the PP at 22.2%.
- Vox was third on 17.1% and Sumar on 6.1%.
- The poll surveyed 5,025 people in early October.
- A record 55.7% named housing as a main problem.
- Other polls point to a PP–Vox majority.
- The snap election follows parliament's rejection of government housing measures.
Where accounts differ
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How far the CIS result can be trusted
- Centre
- Anadolu stresses the divergence from other polls and cites El Pais's finding that CIS overestimated the left in 43 of 44 elections since 2018.
- Right
- Reuters (via Straits Times) notes the contrast with most other polls but offers no assessment of CIS's record.
Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas organisation
The state pollster CIS published an October survey of 5,025 respondents showing the Socialists clearly ahead.
“The latest CIS survey was based on 5,025 interviews done in early October.” — Anadolu Agency
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party party
The ruling party, led by Sanchez, leads the CIS poll and its leader is the most preferred premier; the coverage quotes no party comment.
“Sanchez remains the preferred candidate for the premiership for 39.3% of those surveyed” — The Straits Times
People's Party party
The opposition PP trails in the CIS poll but is shown ahead, with Vox, in other polls and the RTVE average.
“Public broadcaster RTVE’s polling average likewise projected a comfortable parliamentary majority for the PP and Vox” — Anadolu Agency
East and Southeast Asia1 outlet
The Straits Times carries Reuters' concise brief on the poll numbers and election context.
“MADRID, Oct 14 - Spain's ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) would win 34%” — The Straits Times
The Straits Times
Middle East1 outlet
Anadolu gives a longer analysis centred on housing and the reliability of the CIS.
“The divergence is not new.” — Anadolu Agency
Anadolu Agency
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Spain’s Socialists widen lead in state poll as housing dominates election debate
Mixed Reports the Socialist lead but places it in the housing-crisis context and casts doubt through other polls and CIS's record.
Right1 article
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The Straits TimesRC · · via Reuters
Spain's ruling Socialists lead in state-run poll ahead of snap election
Neutral Reuters wire brief giving the figures and noting the contrast with other polls.
- 14 Oct 13:16 First The Straits TimesRC Spain's ruling Socialists lead in state-run poll ahead of snap election via Reuters
- 14 Oct 19:54 +6h 39m Anadolu AgencyN Spain’s Socialists widen lead in state poll as housing dominates election debate
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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