Democrats' route to Senate and House control ahead of 3 November midterms, as Trump approval falls

Mixed · 2Ahead of the 3 November midterm elections, Democrats are favoured in several forecasts to win the Senate, though a large majority is seen as much harder to reach. 1 2 Right · 1The Jerusalem Post, summarising a CNN analysis, said Democrats' hopes rest partly on President Donald Trump's approval rating, which it put at an all-time low of 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll from the previous week. 2 Right · 1According to the Jerusalem Post's account of CNN, the Senate seats most likely to flip are, in order, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire and Georgia, and Democrats would need seven of these ten to reach a 51-seat majority. 2

Right · 1Georgia is the only listed seat that could flip from Democratic to Republican; an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found Sen. Jon Ossoff leading Republican Rep. Mike Collins by eight points. 2 Centre · 1Newsweek, by contrast, counts the arithmetic as a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat majority, and says reaching 55 would need eight pickups with no offsetting loss, including holding Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. 1 Centre · 1Forecasts cited by Newsweek differ: Vote-Scope projects 54 Democratic seats (range 48 to 55, 71% chance of a majority), the Fred Cornell forecast 52 seats (66% chance of at least 51), and the 270toWin consensus of seven forecasters 49 seats with five tossups. 1

Centre · 1Two independent experts told Newsweek that 55 seats is unlikely: Lee Miringoff of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion called it "probably beyond realistic", and Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights put the chance at "on the order of 1 in 10". 1 Centre · 1Ruffini said Iowa is pivotal ("If they lose Iowa, 53 is about the ceiling"), noted that 73% of polls from 2018 to 2024 overestimated Democrats, and warned that a turnout collapse among low-propensity 2024 Trump voters would be the likeliest route to a Democratic surge. 1 Right · 1In the House, the Jerusalem Post reported that Cook Political Report found Democrats need only one or two seats of 435 for a majority, with 21 toss-ups (16 Republican-held, five Democratic-held). 2

Right · 1A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier in October showed Democrats leading Republicans 44% to 37% on the congressional ballot, driven partly by women, 50% of whom said they would vote Democratic against 32% Republican. 2 Mixed · 2Newsweek noted that the president's party lost Senate seats in 15 of the 23 midterms from 1934 to 2022, a pattern less consistent than in the House; CNN, per the Jerusalem Post, noted that both chambers rarely change hands in the same year, the last time for Democrats being 2006. 1 2 Right · 1On the Republican side, Trump promised in early October to send US adults $5,000 if Republicans win big, which NBC reported would cost at least $1.3 trillion; the Jerusalem Post said it is unclear how it would be funded. Trump has also said he will be blamed if the GOP loses. 2

Right · 1NBC News data showed at least 26 million early votes had been cast by Sunday, of whom 47% were registered Democrats, 35% registered Republicans and 18% other. 2