Commentary: Trump's low approval and expected midterm backlash
Three opinion pieces ahead of the 3 November midterms argue Donald Trump's weak approval signals a voter backlash, two from a US-left angle and one from Newsweek placing it in a global pullback from Trump-style politics.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Three opinion pieces published between 25 and 29 October 2026 argue that Donald Trump's low approval ratings point to a voter backlash in the 3 November midterm elections. Raw StoryL “Multiple polls show Trump’s approval at record lows” Read at Raw Story ↗ NewsweekN “Americans will hand Donald Trump’s presidency a near-mortal blow in the November 3 midterm elections.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek's Shane Croucher wrote that Trump's approval averages about 37 percent, near the lowest of either of his terms, after the still unresolved war with Iran spiked gasoline prices and compounded anger over the cost of living. NewsweekN “averages about 37 percent after his still unresolved war with Iran spiked gasoline prices and compounded voters’ anger over the cost of living” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Croucher said forecasters make Democrats heavy favourites to win the House and narrower ones to take the Senate, while noting that polls have erred before. NewsweekN “Forecasters make Democrats heavy favorites to win the House and narrower ones to take the Senate. Polls have erred before, and may again.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Centre · 1He places this in a wider trend: he cites Viktor Orbán losing power in Hungary in April, a Swedish government ousted in September, Lula's win over Trump-favoured Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil (52 to 48 percent), and a British shift towards rejoining the EU. NewsweekN “In April, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, the prototype illiberal nationalist and a fixture at MAGA gatherings, lost power after 16 years.”“He beat Trump’s favored candidate, the rightist Flávio Bolsonaro, 52 percent to 48.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1He adds caveats: populist-right figures such as Marine Le Pen and the AfD's Alice Weidel remain strong, some Trump-endorsed Latin American candidates won, and Trump still has two years left, with many voters backing his immigration goals even if they reject his methods. NewsweekN “In Europe, the populist right is far from finished.”“A Reuters/Ipsos poll this year found 61 percent of Americans backed deporting immigrants living in the country illegally, even as most rejected his methods.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Left · 1In Raw Story on 25 October, Robert Reich argued the shift runs deeper than polling, saying independents, moderate Republicans and some 2024 Trump voters are alarmed by National Guard deployments, ICE arrests, pressure on broadcasters and a Middle East war that raised fuel prices. Raw StoryL “Many people who consider themselves non-political or independent — or moderate Republican or who even voted for Trump in November 2024 — can’t avoid seeing what’s come so clearly into the open.”“another endless war in the Middle East that’s driven up prices at the pump so high that many Americans can’t make ends meet” Read at Raw Story ↗
Left · 1Reich framed the choice as "democracy versus dictatorship" and predicted voters would stop Trump. Raw StoryL “It’s now democracy versus dictatorship. Right versus wrong.” Read at Raw Story ↗ Left · 1In Raw Story on 29 October, Ray Richmond predicted a "blue wave" and a Republican defeat that would be "entirely" a repudiation of Trump rather than of individual candidates, and anticipated Trump would claim the vote was rigged. Raw StoryL “It isn’t a repudiation of the candidates, but entirely of you.”“I know Trump will cry foul, claim the vote was rigged, look to tie the results up in court” Read at Raw Story ↗ Left · 1Richmond listed figures he attributes to Trump's record, including 10.88 million Americans losing health insurance between January 2025 and June 2026 and a 5.4 percent cumulative rise in consumer prices; these are the columnist's figures and are not independently sourced in the piece. Raw StoryL “Number of Americans Who Lost Health Insurance Between January 2025 and June 2026: 10.88 million”“Cumulative Increase in Consumer Prices Since Trump Returned to Office: 5.4%” Read at Raw Story ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Passionate opinion casting the midterms as a moral reckoning with Trump, who is portrayed as a threat to democracy.
- Emphasis
- Authoritarian conduct, immigration enforcement, cost of living, and a list of personal and policy failings; expectation of a landslide.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Little acknowledgement of polling uncertainty, Republican strengths, or support for Trump's immigration aims.
- Charged language
- “Corruptor in Chief”“GOP-ending whupping”“democracy versus dictatorship”“the president is insane”
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Analytical essay presenting Trump's decline as part of a global ebb of nationalist populism, with hedges.
- Emphasis
- Polling averages, forecasts, and election results abroad (Hungary, Sweden, Brazil, UK, Israel).
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not dwell on domestic concerns such as civil liberties or enforcement tactics.
- Charged language
- “near-mortal blow”“Global Trumpism”
Right0 outlets
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- All three pieces expect a poor result for Trump's party in the 3 November midterms.
- All tie voter anger partly to the Middle East/Iran war and its effect on living costs.
Where accounts differ
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How certain and how large the backlash will be
- Left
- Richmond predicts an "imminent landslide" and Reich says Trump will be stopped.
- Centre
- Croucher says a blue wave is likely "in some form" but polls may err and Republicans could outperform.
Left2 articles
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Raw StoryL · · Opinion
This is how sleeping giant of America awakens — and puts an end to Trump
Alarmist Reich says a broad cross-section of Americans is awakening to Trump's abuses and will vote to stop him.
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Raw StoryL · · Opinion
Trump demands he get the blame for this GOP-ending whupping
Critical Richmond uses a long list of statistics and insults to argue the midterm loss will be wholly Trump's fault.
Centre1 article
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NewsweekN · · Opinion
The Trump Era Is Dying Across the World
Mixed Croucher links Trump's weak standing to a global retreat of populism while hedging on polls and noting some Trump-friendly achievements.
Right0 articles
No coverage yet.
- 25 Oct 17:58 First Raw StoryL This is how sleeping giant of America awakens — and puts an end to Trump Opinion
- 29 Oct 09:30 +87h 32m Raw StoryL Trump demands he get the blame for this GOP-ending whupping Opinion
- 29 Oct 09:39 +87h 41m NewsweekN The Trump Era Is Dying Across the World Opinion
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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