COP31 in Antalya opens 9 November, with limited progress expected

Mixed · 2The COP31 climate summit is due to open in Antalya, Turkey, on 9 November and run for two weeks, to 20 November, at the Antalya Expo Center. 1 2 Mixed · 2Turkey and Australia share the hosting after both sought it and neither would back down: Turkey provides the venue, the presidency (under COP President Murat Kurum) and the Action Agenda of pledges outside the negotiations, while Australia, led by Chris Bowen, runs the formal talks. 1 2 Centre · 1New Scientist says no big declaration or new treaty is planned. Negotiators mainly face unfinished decisions from COP30 in Belém, Brazil, including a "just transition mechanism" whose workings have barely been defined and a pledge to triple adaptation finance for lower-income countries by 2035 that has no baseline year and no agreement on who pays. 1

Centre · 1COP30 ended without commitments on fossil-fuel "road maps" or deforestation. New Scientist reports that only France has produced a fully fledged road map since countries met in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April, and that the idea is unlikely to reach the formal agenda. The hosts are instead promoting electrification, including a Turkish target of 35 per cent of annual energy consumption by 2035, up from about 23 per cent. 1 Centre · 1New Scientist lists headwinds: aid cuts and fuel-price pressure from the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict, the risk of confusion under joint hosts that both rely heavily on fossil fuels, and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. It also notes possible positives, including Lula's re-election in Brazil and the chance of Democratic gains in the US midterms. 1 Centre · 1Ana Toni, executive director of COP30, told journalists that Antalya will bring "many very important discussions, but they are less grand, big decisions". Australia and Turkey say they will work on a cover text that could acknowledge that the world will overshoot 1.5°C. 1

Right · 1An Arab News opinion column by political scientist Majid Rafizadeh says the window to limit warming to 1.5°C has effectively closed. It argues that COP31 must shift from commitment to implementation, with a Loss and Damage Fund operational by late 2026 or early 2027, more grant-based finance, and tripled adaptation finance. It cites Turkey's climate law, emissions trading system and Zero Waste Project as giving it credibility, and points to Nepal flood losses and Hurricane Melissa as evidence of unequal impacts. 2