CSJ: British nationals made up one-fifth of payroll job growth since 2014

Mixed · 2The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), a centre-right think tank, said 734,000 British nationals were added to HMRC's pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) system between 2014 and the end of 2025. 1 2 Mixed · 2Over the same period the system gained 2.5 million non-EU nationals and 408,000 EU nationals, according to the CSJ's State of Dependency report, which means British nationals accounted for about one fifth of the growth. 1 2 Mixed · 2The 250-page report argues that successive governments have used low-skilled migration to fill gaps in the jobs market while more British workers were left workless and turned to benefits, a trend it says has sharpened since 2020. 1 2

Right · 1It says payroll jobs held by British nationals fell in nine of the UK's 12 nations and regions between January 2020 and December 2025, while jobs held by non-EU nationals rose in every one. Scotland saw the largest fall, 53,000, and the report also records falls of 32,000 in the West Midlands, 31,700 in the South-east, 29,400 in the East of England and 26,500 in London. 2 Centre · 1In Scotland more than 153,000 non-EU nationals were added to the payroll over that time. In London the number of non-EU nationals rose by 407,000. 1 Right · 1The CSJ says growth in non-EU payroll jobs since 2020 has been concentrated in social care, hospitality and retail. Health and social work accounted for 29% of the increase, followed by administrative and support services (16%), accommodation and food services (12%) and wholesale and retail (10%). 2

Right · 1The think tank also says annual spending on working-age benefits has risen by £50 billion in real terms since 2019-20, and that about 6.7 million people across England, Wales and Scotland receive at least one out-of-work benefit, around one in six working-age adults. 2 Mixed · 2It says immigration has boosted overall economic growth but masked slower growth per person. It cites real-terms GDP growth of 26% between 2006 and 2025 against 10% growth in GDP per person, and says official forecasts, which look five years ahead, capture the immediate gains in workers and tax receipts but not the longer-term costs as migrants become eligible for welfare and grow older. 1 2 Mixed · 2Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary who chaired the CSJ investigation, said the crisis "extends beyond the benefit system". He said successive governments had used welfare to compensate parts of the country for economic failure, and that ministers had repeatedly "pulled the easy lever of immigration" instead of giving left-behind communities a better deal. 1 2

Centre · 1The Evening Standard added context from HMRC statistics: British nationals still make up the bulk of PAYE-registered workers, with 25.6 million of 32 million on the payroll as of December 2025. 1 Right · 1Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice called the report a "damning indictment" of Labour and Conservative governments and said Reform would end the welfare trap and halt mass immigration. Shadow Cabinet Office minister Mike Wood blamed Labour's tax rises on businesses, red tape and border failures. 2 Right · 1A government spokesperson said the vast majority of the workforce is made up of UK nationals. The spokesperson pointed to a new skills-based migration system, a Youth Guarantee creating almost a million work opportunities for young people, and £3.5 billion to help disabled people and those with long-term health conditions move closer to work. 2