Democrats outraise Republicans in most key Senate races; GOP outside money narrows the gap

Mixed · 2Democratic Senate candidates outraised their Republican rivals in the third quarter (July to September) in all but one of the competitive races, with Minnesota the only exception, according to both NBC News and Newsweek. 1 2 Left · 1NBC News, citing Federal Election Commission filings, reported that Democratic candidates in more than a dozen competitive races raised a combined $253 million against $56 million for Republicans. Democrats spent $300 million in the quarter to Republicans' nearly $84 million, and entered the final month with $87 million in cash on hand against $56 million for Republicans. 1 Mixed · 2In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico raised far more than Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, about $10 million. Newsweek put Talarico's total at $64 million and called it the most any U.S. Senate candidate has raised in a third quarter, while NBC News gave $60.2 million. 2 1

Left · 1NBC News also reported that Sen. Jon Ossoff raised $33.1 million in Georgia against $2.8 million for Rep. Mike Collins, and that former Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $23.1 million in Ohio against $4.8 million for Sen. John Husted. 1 Centre · 1Newsweek said Democrats also led in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina, and in traditionally Republican-leaning states: Democrat Adam Hamilton raised nearly $10 million to under $1 million for Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, and independent Dan Osborn outraised Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. 2 Mixed · 2The one Republican fundraising lead was in Minnesota, where, per Newsweek, Michele Tafoya raised $4.3 million to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan's $3.8 million, in a race in which Flanagan is seen as having an advantage. NBC News said Republicans think Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, could have an opening there. 2 1

Mixed · 2Republican-aligned outside groups are making up much of the difference. Both outlets highlight Elon Musk, who gave $158 million in September to a group backing Paxton, according to Newsweek, and, per NBC News, to the Senate Leadership Fund, which transferred the same amount to Texas PAC. Newsweek, citing The New York Times, said Musk has given more than $276 million to Republican groups since July; NBC News said about a quarter-billion dollars. 1 2 Centre · 1Newsweek, citing AdImpact, said Republicans outspent Democrats by $188 million on advertising in Senate battlegrounds as of October 1 and hold 61 percent of future ad reservations ($272 million versus $155 million for Democrats). 2 Mixed · 2Both outlets note the trade-offs: candidates get cheaper TV ad rates and more control over messaging, while outside groups can take larger donations without contribution limits. University of Maryland political scientist David Karol told Newsweek that fundraising is not decisive, citing the midterm environment and President Donald Trump's low approval rating. 1 2

Mixed · 2Control of the Senate remains competitive less than three weeks before the November 3 election. Newsweek reported Democrats at 63 percent on Kalshi and 65 percent on Polymarket. NBC News's Kristen Welker wrote that the environment is breaking toward Democrats, that Republicans are shifting money from North Carolina to Kansas and South Carolina, but that "the die is not cast" given Republicans' outside money. 2 1