DOJ crime survey finds 25% drop in violent victimization in 2025; comparability caveats noted

Right · 2A Justice Department survey released Monday 26 October 2026 estimated that violent crime victimization, excluding simple assault, fell 25% in 2025, about 669,000 fewer incidents than in 2024. 1 2 Left · 1CBS News reported that the Justice Department claimed the drop was the largest since 1973, and described the survey as preliminary. 3 Right · 2The National Crime Victimization Survey is conducted annually by the Census Bureau and published by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. It measures crimes by interviewing victims directly, so it can capture incidents missing from police records, but it excludes homicide. 1 2

Right · 2The rate of violent victimization excluding simple assault fell from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 residents aged 12 and older, according to Breitbart's account of the report. Aggravated assault victimization fell 31% (about 390,000 incidents) and robbery 27% (about 172,000 incidents). 2 1 Right · 2Property crime victimization fell 19%, by roughly 3.4 million incidents according to the Washington Examiner and 3.5 million according to Breitbart. Burglary and trespassing fell 25% (about 460,000 incidents) and motor vehicle theft fell by about 349,000 incidents, a decline of 29% by the Examiner's figure and roughly 30% by Breitbart's. 1 2 Right · 1Across all violent crime including simple assault, Breitbart reports victimizations fell from 8.2 million to about 7.5 million, a change researchers flagged as statistically non-significant. 2

Right · 1The Justice Department called the declines historic, the largest single-year decreases in the survey's history for the respective categories, according to the Washington Examiner. Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said the report was "proof that President Trump’s ‘Make America Safe Again’ agenda is working." 1 Right · 2The administration credits its crackdown on illegal immigration, drug trafficking, gang violence and gun trafficking. The White House says more than 400,000 immigrants charged with or convicted of crimes were deported, and officials argue enforcement also deters crime among those who remain. 1 2 Right · 1Breitbart adds that FBI Director Kash Patel told the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2025 that agents seized over 1,600 kilograms of fentanyl and disrupted about 1,800 gangs and criminal enterprises. It also reports that the ATF cited a 57% rise in federal charges under six firearms-trafficking statutes. 2

Right · 2The survey's decline is much larger than in FBI figures, which rely on offenses reported to police. The FBI recorded a 7.2% fall in aggravated assaults against 31% in the survey. The DOJ pointed to the gap as evidence that crime is falling faster than reported statistics suggest, though the report also says the gap alone does not establish changes in victim reporting. 1 2 Right · 2The bureau moved to a redesigned survey in January 2025, and its statisticians say the new estimates are not directly comparable with the older series. Breitbart says this limits claims that the declines were the largest since 1973 and describes the 2025 findings as preliminary, with final estimates expected in 2027. The survey interviewed 152,150 people, a 78% unweighted response rate. 1 2 Left · 1CBS News gives different sample figures: 101,980 household interviews, with 53% of eligible households completing interviews, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. 3

Left · 1CBS News says the survey bolsters the FBI's Uniform Crime Report from earlier this year, which showed the murder rate at a 20-year low, rapes down 7.6% and robbery down about 18.5%. It adds that Trump and allies are using the decline in their midterm campaigning, and that the White House unveiled the FBI figures ahead of a campaign event on Long Island attended by Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel, which CBS calls a break from prior traditions. 3