Early voting runs ahead of 2022; Texas, California, Florida lead as sides read data differently
More than 28 million Americans had voted early about a week before the 2026 midterms, ahead of 2022. Coverage differs on what the age and party breakdowns imply for the result.
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The story, neutrally told
Centre · 1More than 28 million Americans had cast ballots in the 2026 midterms with just over a week to go, according to the University of Florida Election Lab data cited by Newsweek. NewsweekN “Over 28 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2026 midterms with just over a week until Election day, according to data from The University of Florida Election Lab.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek reported that early voting was outpacing 2022: an Associated Press analysis found it up 74 percent in Texas and more than doubled in Kansas, with Maine, North Carolina and Ohio up more than 30 percent. NewsweekN “An Associated Press (AP) analysis found early voting was up 74 percent in Texas compared to at the same point in 2022, while Kansas had more than doubled its total of early ballots.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1The states with the most early ballots were Texas (over 4 million), California (3.1 million), Florida (2.7 million), North Carolina (1.5 million) and Virginia (over 1.1 million); there was no data yet for Alabama or New Hampshire. NewsweekN “States with the most early ballots cast so far include Texas, with more than 4 million, California with 3.1 million, Florida with 2.7 million, North Carolina with 1.5 million and Virginia with over 1.1 million.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Centre · 1Among about 6.9 million early voters with age data, 50.4 percent were over 65 and 4.5 percent were aged 18-25. Where party registration is recorded (13.7 million voters), 45.1 percent were registered Democrats and 30.7 percent registered Republicans. NewsweekN “50.4 percent of these were aged over 65, while only 4.5 percent were aged 18-25.”“45.1 percent of early voters were registered Democrats compared with 30.7 percent Republicans.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek cautioned that most people will still vote on the day, so no conclusions about results can be drawn from early totals. NewsweekN “the majority will vote in person on the day, meaning that even with higher early voting numbers conclusions cannot be drawn about results at this stage.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Both parties are urging early voting: President Trump voted early in Florida on 24 October, the Republican National Committee relaunched its Swamp the Vote USA site, and the Democratic-aligned Association of State Democratic Committees launched a New Battlefield Project that includes an early-vote push. NewsweekN “President Trump himself voted early in Florida on October 24 alongside First Lady Melania Trump before heading to campaign in Georgia.”“The Association of State Democratic Committees, an arm of the Democratic National Committee, launched its New Battlefield Project for the midterms.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Right · 1Hot Air columnist Duane Patterson, in an opinion piece, argued that the early data points to an older electorate than polls assume, which he said favours Republicans. He cited a Real Clear Politics generic-ballot average of D+8.1 and CNN's Harry Enten saying polls have overestimated Democratic turnout in 15 of 16 elections since 1994. Hot AirR “The latest average of generic Congressional polling at Real Clear Politics shows a D+8.1 environment”“Try 15 out of 16 times since 1994.” Read at Hot Air ↗ Right · 1Patterson pointed to a Harvard Youth Poll finding that 33 percent of 18-29-year-olds say they will definitely vote, down from 40 percent before the 2018 and 2022 midterms, and said that in Michigan's mail voting, ballots from people 65 and over came in 16 times as often as those from 18-29-year-olds. Hot AirR “only 33 percent of 18–29-year-olds say they will “definitely vote,” down from 40 percent ahead of both the 2018 and 2022 midterms.”“65+ ballots came in 16 times more frequently than 18-29's.” Read at Hot Air ↗ Right · 1He also claimed Democrats front-loaded their early vote and then faded in Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and possibly Michigan. In Ohio, where party is not recorded in general elections, he estimated a Democratic early-vote edge of roughly 48,000-49,000 votes, which he expected Republicans to overcome on Election Day. These are his readings of modelled data, not official party tallies. Hot AirR “Best case scenario right now is Democrats have somewhere in the neighborhood of a 48,000-49,000 vote edged they've banked.”“as is the case in Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and Iowa, Michigan may be showing the first signs of a Democrat voter roll-off.” Read at Hot Air ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Data-led explainer of where early voting is highest and who is voting, with a caveat against reading results from it.
- Emphasis
- State totals, year-on-year increases, age, party, race and gender breakdowns, and both parties' early-vote drives.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not analyse partisan turnout trends or polling accuracy.
- For example
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“conclusions cannot be drawn about results at this stage.” — Newsweek
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Opinion column reading early-vote data as showing Republican strength and weak youth turnout, and doubting Democratic-leaning polls.
- Emphasis
- Age skew, Democratic roll-off after early days, state-by-state races in Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not cite the overall national early-vote total or the registered-party split showing Democrats ahead among early voters.
- Charged language
- “socialist Democrats”“very long night for the good guys”
What every side reports
- Early voting is running above 2022 levels about a week before Election Day.
- Older voters make up a large share of early voters and young voters a small one.
- Early-vote totals do not settle the outcome, since many people vote on Election Day.
Where accounts differ
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What the early-vote data implies for the midterm result
- Centre
- Newsweek notes Democrats lead among registered early voters (45.1% to 30.7%) but says no conclusions about results can be drawn.
- Right
- Hot Air argues the older early electorate and fading Democratic turnout in several states point to Republican strength, and that polls showing a Democratic lead will miss.
2026 US midterm elections event
Both parties push early voting; the RNC says Republicans won in 2024 by planning to vote early and urges 'Swamping the Vote' again, while Democrats launched an early-vote programme and Obama is campaigning in Michigan, Ohio and Georgia.
“Now, it is up to us to win in 2026 by Swamping the Vote once again,” — Newsweek
“Barack Obama has also joined the Democrats' late midterm turnout push” — Newsweek
Early voting topic
Newsweek treats early voting as a growing trend but not a predictor; Hot Air treats its composition as evidence of a Republican-leaning electorate.
“early voting is soaring when compared with the last midterms in 2022” — Newsweek
“what's shaping up is a significantly different electorate.” — Hot Air
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Map Shows States With Most Early Voters So Far
Neutral Straight data report on early-voting totals and demographics, with a caution against predicting results; produced with an AI assistant.
Right1 article
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Hot AirR · · Opinion
Analyzing Early Voting: North, South, East and West
Critical Partisan opinion column arguing early-vote trends favour Republicans and that polls overstate Democrats.
- 26 Oct 15:23 First NewsweekN Map Shows States With Most Early Voters So Far
- 27 Oct 16:40 +25h 16m Hot AirR Analyzing Early Voting: North, South, East and West Opinion
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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