ESRI projects need for family care among over-50s to rise 49-58% by 2040
An ESRI report says the need for family care among people aged 50 and over in Ireland will rise by between 49% and 58% by 2040 as the population ages. It calls for policy decisions on how family and formal care will meet the extra need.
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The story, neutrally told
A report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), published on Thursday 1 October 2026, projects that the need for family care among people aged 50 and over in Ireland will rise by between 49% and 58% by 2040. Irish IndependentRC “found the need for care for those aged 50 and over will increase by between 49pc and 58pc by 2040.” Read at Irish Independent ↗ The Irish TimesLC ““This number is projected to increase by between 49 and 58 per cent by 2040,” says the report.” Read at The Irish Times ↗ The projections are based on the numbers currently receiving family care; the Irish Times, citing Census 2022, says an estimated 123,802 people aged 50 and older received family care and almost 300,000 people, 6% of the population, provided regular unpaid help. Irish IndependentRC “These figures were estimated based on the numbers currently receiving family care.” Read at Irish Independent ↗ The Irish TimesLC “an estimated 123,802 people aged 50 and older received family care.” Read at The Irish Times ↗ The Irish Independent reports that the rise reaches 123% if everyone with difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) were to receive care in 2040. Irish IndependentRC “The percentage jumps 123pc if all those with difficulties with ADLs and IADLs were to receive care in 2040.” Read at Irish Independent ↗
The ESRI links the rise to demographic change: it projects that between 2022 and 2040 the population aged 65–84 will grow by almost 60% and the population aged 85 and older will more than double, and the Independent reports that possible health improvements are unlikely to offset the growing need. The Irish TimesLC “the population aged 65–84 years is projected to increase by almost 60 per cent, while the population aged 85 years and older is projected to more than double.” Read at The Irish Times ↗ Irish IndependentRC “potential “improvements in health status” are unlikely to be sufficient to offset the growing care needs.” Read at Irish Independent ↗ The study, by Ellen Walsh, Brendan Walsh, Frank Wolfe and Sheelah Connolly, finds that carers are mostly women and that care provision is highest among those aged 45–64. Irish IndependentRC “The authors of the study, Ellen Walsh, Brendan Walsh, Frank Wolfe and Sheelah Connolly” Read at Irish Independent ↗ The Irish TimesLC “Women and those aged 45–64 are most likely to provide family care” Read at The Irish Times ↗ The Independent adds that older carers tend to give more hours: 58% of carers aged 75-84 provided more than 29 hours a week, against 34% of those aged 45-54. Irish IndependentRC “58pc of carers aged 75-84 provided in excess of 29 hours of care a week.” Read at Irish Independent ↗
The report poses the key policy question of whether the extra need will be met by family or formal paid care, or both, and says support should make the type and intensity of care a meaningful choice for carers. Irish IndependentRC “A key question for policymakers, then, is how this additional need for care can be met” Read at Irish Independent ↗ The Irish TimesLC “Policy interventions should aim to ensure there is sufficient support (both financial and otherwise)” Read at The Irish Times ↗ On the balance of family and formal care, the Independent quotes the report as saying formal services are not expected to replace family care and that government supports will become increasingly important, while the Irish Times quotes it as saying some of the additional need will likely require more formal services. Irish IndependentRC “it is not expected that formal services will replace such care in the future.” Read at Irish Independent ↗ The Irish TimesLC “likely some of the additional need will require an increase in formal services,”” Read at The Irish Times ↗ Report author Sheelah Connolly said demographic change would pressure both family carers and formal services, and Minister of State for older people Kieran O'Donnell said the report reinforced the need to strengthen both family carer support and community-based and formal care, and would inform planning across Government. The Irish TimesLC “Report author Sheelah Connolly said demographic change would put increasing pressure on both family carers and formal care services”“This important research will help inform planning by the Department of Health and across Government” Read at The Irish Times ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Leads on the ageing population and the pressure on family carers and formal services, with a call for improved financial support and a ministerial response.
- Emphasis
- Financial support for carers, the need to expand formal services, Census 2022 figures, and comments from author Sheelah Connolly and Minister Kieran O'Donnell.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not report the 123% scenario or the hours-of-care breakdown by carer age.
- Charged language
- “bedrock of care”
- For example
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“underlining a requirement for improved financial support, a report published on Thursday says.” — The Irish Times
“Family care remains the “bedrock of care”, says the report.” — The Irish Times
Centre0 outlets
No centre outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Leads on the headline figure of a 49% rise in need and details the study's findings on carers.
- Emphasis
- The 123% scenario, hours of care by carer age, the gender gap, and the report's statement that formal services won't replace family care.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not give the Census 2022 baseline numbers, the population projections for the 65-84 and 85+ groups, or any government response.
- Charged language
- “set to jump”
- For example
-
“New research by the ESRI has found that the need for family care is set to jump by 49pc by 2040.” — Irish Independent
“government supports will become increasingly important in the coming years.” — Irish Independent
What every side reports
- The ESRI report projects a 49-58% rise by 2040 in the need for family care among people aged 50 and over.
- The report asks how the extra need will be met by family and/or formal paid care.
- Carers are mostly women and provision is highest among those aged 45-64.
Where accounts differ
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Emphasis on the role of formal services versus family care
- Left
- The Irish Times stresses the report's view that some of the extra need will likely require more formal services, and that financial support for carers is needed.
- Right
- The Irish Independent stresses that formal services are not expected to replace family care and that government supports will become increasingly important.
Economic and Social Research Institute organisation
The ESRI says family care is a central part of long-term care, that rising need cannot be offset by health improvements, and that policymakers must decide how family and formal services share the load.
““Policy will need to consider how best to support family carers while also ensuring that sufficient formal services are available to meet growing need.”” — The Irish Times
“Family care is a central component of long-term care in Ireland” — Irish Independent
Left1 article
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Ageing population in Ireland will see rise of up to 58 per cent in need for family care
Neutral Presents the projection as a case for stronger financial and formal support, with the author's and the minister's responses.
Centre0 articles
No coverage yet.
Right1 article
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Need for family care is projected to rise by at least 49pc, says ESRI
Neutral Reports the headline projection and detailed study findings, including the high-end 123% scenario and carer hours.
- 1 Oct 05:30 First Irish IndependentRC Need for family care is projected to rise by at least 49pc, says ESRI
- 1 Oct 18:28 +12h 59m The Irish TimesLC Ageing population in Ireland will see rise of up to 58 per cent in need for family care
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.