Ethiopia's Green Legacy campaign nears 50 billion trees as experts question survival

Left · 2Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative, launched by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2019, aims to plant 50 billion tree seedlings by 2030 and has mobilised tens of millions of people. 1 2 Left · 2Grist reports more than 47 billion seedlings planted in seven years, while NBC News says the government puts the total at more than 48 billion. 2 1 Left · 2According to government figures, 26.6 million Ethiopians planted 800 million seedlings in a single day in August, beating the previous year's 714.7 million. 2 1

Left · 2The campaign responds to a century of deforestation: forests covered an estimated 35–40% of Ethiopia in the early 20th century but under 3% by the late 1980s, driving soil erosion and famine. 2 1 Left · 2Land degradation is estimated to cost roughly $4 billion a year (Grist says $4.3 billion), hitting farmers' harvests and incomes. 2 1 Left · 2The government distributes free seedlings to farmers and to urban nursery entrepreneurs, and in 2024 set up a Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund committing 0.5–1% of the annual federal budget, roughly $73–145 million, according to Grist. 1 2

Left · 2Government reports show national forest cover rising to 23.6% in 2023 and the annual deforestation rate falling sharply between 2013 and 2023, though the two outlets give different starting forest-cover figures (17.2% in 2019 per Grist, 15.5% in 2013 per NBC News). 2 1 Left · 2Researchers caution that planting does not equal forest recovery: a study of 176 Asian reforestation projects found about half of planted trees did not survive five years, and NBC News notes forest-cover figures are sensitive to how forest is defined. 2 1 Left · 2Aad Kessler of Wageningen University told both outlets that reforestation often fails or is hard to verify, though he called the scale or intention significant; he said that even 30% survival would be "huge" (Grist) and asked how many trees survive and where they are planted (NBC News). 2 1

Left · 2Restoration ecologist Emiru Birhane Hizikias said the campaign's scale has outpaced the systems needed to make it work, with too much focus on seedling numbers over survival; Abreham Berta Aneseyee, a Wolkite University scientist and Ministry of Agriculture adviser, disputes this, saying government experts advise farmers house to house. 2 1 Left · 1Grist cites a 2026 study of more than 44,500 seedlings planted in southern Ethiopia in 2023 that found about 80% had survived, with higher rates for trained planters, older seedlings and wet-season plantings. 2 Left · 1Grist reports signs of ecological recovery, including rising lake levels and returning wildlife in Abijata-Shalla National Park, according to the Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Authority's director-general. 2

Left · 1NBC News highlights limits: conflict in Amhara and Tigray, and a July 2024 landslide in Gofa Zone that killed 274 people, where a survivor said no significant reforestation had occurred beforehand and former water minister Seleshi Bekele Awulachew said climate change is intensifying extreme events. 1 Left · 1Grist adds that development experts say the programme contributed to Ethiopia being selected to host next year's U.N. climate conference. 2