Euro hits lowest against dollar since 2025 on French deficit and bond sell-off fears
The euro fell on Monday 5 October to its weakest level against the US dollar since spring 2025, as worries over French public finances and a sharp French bond sell-off last week weighed on the currency. Outlets differ on how many months back the low goes.
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The story, neutrally told
Centre · 2The euro fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since spring 2025 on Monday 5 October, as concerns about France's budget deficit and a sharp sell-off in French bonds last week weighed on the currency. CNAN “The euro slid to a 17-month low against the dollar on Monday as concerns about France's ability to rein in its budget deficit” Read at CNA ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “The euro fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since March 2025 on Monday” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 2CNA reported the euro hit as low as $1.1161 in Asian hours, its weakest since May 2025, and was last down 0.62% at $1.1118. Anadolu Agency said the currency traded 0.6% lower at $1.1164 as of 0700 GMT and called it a 19-month low, dating it to March 2025. CNAN “The euro sank to as low as $1.1161 in Asian hours, its weakest since May 2025, and was last down 0.62 per cent at $1.1118.” Read at CNA ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “The single currency traded 0.6% lower at $1.1164 as of 0700GMT.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1CNA said the euro recorded its fourth straight weekly fall against the dollar on Friday, its steepest in around four months. CNAN “The single currency recorded on Friday its fourth straight weekly fall against the dollar, its steepest in around four months.” Read at CNA ↗
Centre · 2The gap between French and German 10-year borrowing costs widened sharply on Friday. CNA put it at about 150 basis points, the highest since the euro zone's 2011 sovereign debt crisis, before easing to 140 bps and standing at 145.50 on Monday. Anadolu put the peak at as much as 159 bps, narrowing to around 141 bps at the close. CNAN “widened to about 150 basis points on Friday, the highest since the euro area's sovereign debt crisis in 2011, before pulling back to 140 bps.” Read at CNA ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “widened to as much as 159 basis points before narrowing to around 141 basis points by the close.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1Anadolu added that France's 10-year bond yield briefly approached 5%. Anadolu AgencyN “France's 10-year bond yield briefly approached 5%” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 2Both outlets link the pressure to political uncertainty ahead of France's 2027 presidential election. CNA also cited a hung parliament where compromise has often proved impossible, expectations of higher policy rates, and planned budget cuts that have fuelled protests, including over education funding. Anadolu said the concerns raised fears that strains could spread to other heavily indebted eurozone economies. CNAN “rising political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election cast doubt on the ability of the euro area's second-largest economy”“Planned budget cuts, which have deepened an already acute funding crunch in the education sector, have fuelled discontent and sparked protests across the country.” Read at CNA ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “have raised fears that strains could spread to other heavily indebted eurozone economies.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Centre · 1Hauke Siemssen, a strategist at Commerzbank, told CNA the bond dynamics were "increasingly concerning and somewhat reminiscent of a sovereign debt crisis". He said the spread sell-off "seems to increasingly feed on itself", though there is a fundamental justification for wider spreads. CNAN ““Latest bond market dynamics are increasingly concerning and somewhat reminiscent of a sovereign debt crisis.”““The (French) spread sell-off seems to increasingly feed on itself, creating a dangerous market backdrop,” he said” Read at CNA ↗ Centre · 2A firmer dollar added to the pressure. CNA said the dollar index rose 0.39% to 102.33, after reaching 102.53, its highest since 10 April 2025, close to levels before Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, when it was around 104. Anadolu noted the dollar strengthened despite softer-than-expected US employment data and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. CNAN “rose 0.39 per cent to 102.33, after reaching 102.53, its highest level since April 10, 2025.” Read at CNA ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “The US currency strengthened despite softer-than-expected US employment data and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1According to CME FedWatch, traders price a 78% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 36% a week earlier, after its September hike. They still expect a hike in December and two more in the first half of 2027. CNA also said the yen rose 0.10% to 157.67, supported by official warnings against its depreciation. CNAN “Traders are now pricing in a 78 per cent chance of the US central bank holding rates steady in October, compared with 36 per cent a week earlier”“The Japanese currency was up 0.10 per cent at 157.67” Read at CNA ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre2 outlets
- Framing
- Both centre outlets treat it as a market-moves story: the euro's fall driven by French fiscal and bond-market stress and a stronger dollar. CNA gives the longer analysis; Anadolu is a short brief.
- Emphasis
- CNA stresses the sovereign-debt-crisis comparison, the dollar's recovery towards pre-'Liberation Day' levels, Fed pricing and the yen. Anadolu stresses the spread, the near-5% French 10-year yield and contagion risk.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Anadolu omits the analyst commentary, Fed rate-pricing figures and the protests. CNA omits the French 10-year yield near 5% and the contagion fear for other eurozone economies.
- Charged language
- “dangerous market backdrop”“sovereign debt crisis dynamics”
- For example
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“stirred fears of a return of sovereign debt crisis dynamics in the euro zone.” — CNA
“as concerns over European public finances and political uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment.” — Anadolu Agency
Right0 outlets
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- The euro fell about 0.6% against the dollar on Monday 5 October to its weakest since spring 2025.
- French government bonds sold off sharply on Friday, widening the French-German yield gap.
- French fiscal concerns and political uncertainty before the 2027 presidential election weighed on the euro.
- A firmer dollar added to the euro's decline.
Where accounts differ
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How long the euro's low goes back
- Centre
- CNA calls it a 17-month low, weakest since May 2025. Anadolu calls it a 19-month low, lowest since March 2025.
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Peak of the French-German spread on Friday
- Centre
- CNA says about 150 bps, easing to 140. Anadolu says as much as 159 bps, easing to around 141 at the close.
East and Southeast Asia1 outlet
CNA frames the move within global currency markets, including the dollar against pre-'Liberation Day' levels, Fed expectations and the yen.
“US DOLLAR CLOSE TO LIBERATION DAY'S HIGHS” — CNA
CNA
Middle East1 outlet
Anadolu focuses on European fiscal and political risk and possible spread to other indebted eurozone economies.
“have raised fears that strains could spread to other heavily indebted eurozone economies.” — Anadolu Agency
Anadolu Agency
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre2 articles
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CNAN ·
Euro at 17-month low, dollar near pre-Liberation Day highs
Mixed Detailed market report that carries a Commerzbank strategist's warning of crisis-like dynamics, plus dollar, Fed and yen context.
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Euro falls to 19-month low amid European fiscal, political risks
Neutral Short factual brief on the euro's drop, the French spread and yield, and the firmer dollar.
Right0 articles
No coverage yet.
- 5 Oct 08:43 First CNAN Euro at 17-month low, dollar near pre-Liberation Day highs
- 5 Oct 10:00 +1h 17m Anadolu AgencyN Euro falls to 19-month low amid European fiscal, political risks
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.