Experts warn NOAA staffing cuts leave US less prepared for strong El Niño this winter

Left · 2Former government officials and scientists have warned that cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under President Donald Trump have hampered the US capacity to forecast, research and respond to extreme weather, as a potentially historic El Niño develops this winter. 1 2 Left · 2According to US Office of Personnel Management workforce data last updated in August, NOAA has lost more than 3,000 staffers since January 2025, roughly 20% of its staff, and has made only 525 new hires, leaving a deficit of about 2,500. 1 2 Left · 2The Guardian reported that the public affairs team was roughly halved, IT management staff fell by about 27%, and there are about 10% fewer meteorologists and meteorology technicians, with only 40 meteorologists added between January and August; hundreds of positions are vacant across the National Weather Service's 122 forecast offices. 1 2

Left · 2The El Niño is expected to strengthen through the northern hemisphere's autumn and winter and could intensify storms in parts of the western US, raise sea levels in California by up to a foot, and bring debris flows, landslides and flash floods. 1 2 Left · 2Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA climate scientist now at Climate Central, said the system has not really been tested since the cuts and that it is a big question whether the country can handle coast-to-coast extremes this winter; Monica Medina, NOAA's principal deputy administrator under Obama, said she worried about loss of life and that if this is a real test, "we’re going to flunk". 1 2 Left · 2The reports point to signs of strain already: delayed or limited weather balloon launches left parts of the Great Plains unprepared for tornadoes, rural Alaska communities received limited warning before floods that displaced more than 1,500 people, and a Government Accountability Office (GAO) finding said cuts undermined multilingual alerts, putting 26 million people at higher risk. 1 2

Left · 1Raw Story, citing NPR, adds that NOAA's El Niño research effort has been scaled back, with only "a handful of unmanned watercraft" planned for the Pacific this year compared with aircraft, drones, balloons and a research vessel in 2015-16, and that about $6 billion was cut from planned weather satellite investment, which the GAO warns could leave a coverage gap. 2 Left · 1The Guardian also cited Grant Witness figures showing more than $28m in terminated grants and fiscal 2026 grant awards 37% below the 2021-2024 average. 1 Left · 2Trump has proposed cutting $1.6bn from NOAA's budget next year, a 26% drop, though many of the cuts are unlikely to survive the budget process. 1 2

Left · 2Di Liberto said remaining NOAA employees fear getting in trouble for saying anything that conflicts with the administration's messaging on climate. NOAA and the Commerce Department did not respond to the Guardian's requests for comment, so the administration's response is not given in this coverage. 1 2