Fed expected to hold rates at 27–28 October meeting as inflation accelerates
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's 27–28 October meeting, markets expect rates to be held after September's hike, though some economists see another increase. A Washington Examiner op-ed argues for a pause to protect investment.
1 / 2
The story, neutrally told
Centre · 1The US Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting this week, but accelerating inflation keeps the possibility of a rate hike alive, according to Anadolu Agency. Anadolu AgencyN “The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week, but accelerating inflation keeps the possibility of a rate hike alive.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Mixed · 2The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% in September, its first increase since 2023. An op-ed in the Washington Examiner says officials meet on Oct. 27 and 28. Anadolu AgencyN “The Fed increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% last month, raising rates for the first time since 2023.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Washington ExaminerR “That is why a pause makes sense when officials meet on Oct. 27 and 28.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ Mixed · 2Both outlets cite September price data: consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year, and producer prices rose 1.3% in the month. Anadolu adds that CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, and producer prices were up 6.3% year-on-year, the highest since December 2022. Anadolu AgencyN “Producer inflation jumped 1.3% from August and 6.3% year-on-year to its highest level since December 2022.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Washington ExaminerR “Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year through September, and producer prices jumped 1.3% that month.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗
Centre · 1Anadolu reports that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear forward guidance at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. His remarks, together with cautious comments from Vice Chairs Philip Jefferson and Michelle Bowman, reinforced expectations that the Fed will wait for more data. Anadolu AgencyN “Despite elevated inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide clear forward guidance during the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1According to CME Group, markets put a 90% probability on a hold this week and 10% on an immediate hike. Anadolu AgencyN “According to CME Group, there is a 90% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this week, while 10% of traders expect an immediate hike.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1Economists differ on the outlook. Steven Kamin of the American Enterprise Institute expects the Fed to wait for data, with a December hike probable given low unemployment. S&P Global's Satyam Panday forecasts an immediate 25-basis-point hike and 50 more basis points of tightening in this cycle, and says the Fed will act independently of the November midterms. ING economists expect a hold to draw dissents from officials who favoured tightening, such as Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan. Anadolu AgencyN “Satyam Panday, chief US economist at S&P Global, disagreed and instead forecast an immediate 25-basis-point hike in October, while expecting an additional 50 basis points of tightening in the current cycle amid sticky core inflation.”“may dissent.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Right · 1In the Washington Examiner op-ed, economic strategist Dan Varroney argues the Fed should hold in October while it assesses September's increase, because higher borrowing costs cannot expand fuel supplies and would burden business investment and housing. Washington ExaminerR “The Federal Reserve should hold interest rates steady in October while it assesses September’s increase.”“Higher rates can restrain spending, but they cannot directly expand fuel supplies.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ Right · 1Varroney cites September payroll growth of just 29,000 jobs, a 0.5% fall in real average hourly earnings and a 4% drop in single-family permits. He says a pause should come with clear conditions for reconsideration, such as broadening inflation or worsening longer-term expectations, and urges Congress and the Trump administration to ease permitting and energy supply. Washington ExaminerR “September brought just 29,000 additional payroll jobs, with downward revisions to the previous two months. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.5% during September.”“A pause must therefore come with clear conditions for reconsideration” Read at Washington Examiner ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Wire-style market preview: the Fed is expected to hold, but hot inflation keeps a hike possible, set against the November midterms.
- Emphasis
- Inflation data, market odds, Fed officials' cautious remarks and divided economist forecasts.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not discuss the effects of higher rates on investment, housing or jobs.
- For example
-
“Fed faces challenging policy meeting as rising energy prices fuel inflation” — Anadolu Agency
“According to CME Group, there is a 90% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this week” — Anadolu Agency
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Opinion piece arguing the Fed should pause because rate rises choke investment, housing and growth, and cannot fix energy-driven inflation.
- Emphasis
- Business investment, diesel costs, weak jobs and real earnings, housing permits, and supply-side steps for Congress and the administration.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention market pricing or forecasts of further hikes, nor the Fed members who favoured tightening.
- Charged language
- “starving the cure”“seed corn of future economic growth”
- For example
-
“The Fed thinks it’s fighting inflation. It’s starving the cure” — Washington Examiner
“Before making capital more expensive again, officials must account for the businesses, homes and opportunities that investment can build.” — Washington Examiner
What every side reports
- The Fed raised rates in September.
- Consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in September.
- Producer prices rose 1.3% in September.
- The Fed meets on 27–28 October.
Where accounts differ
-
What the Fed should or will do in October
- Centre
- A hold is the 90% market expectation, but S&P Global forecasts an immediate hike and AEI expects one in December.
- Right
- The Fed should hold, with clear conditions for reconsideration.
Federal Reserve organisation
Per Anadolu, the Fed raised rates in September and is expected to wait for more data. The op-ed says the Fed must explain how higher rates would address the pressures driving inflation.
“his statements have reinforced market expectations that the Fed will wait for more data before acting.” — Anadolu Agency
“The Fed must explain how higher borrowing costs would address the pressures actually driving inflation.” — Washington Examiner
Kevin Warsh person
Warsh gave no clear forward guidance at the IMF meetings, per Anadolu. The op-ed quotes him calling business investment 'the seed corn of future economic growth'.
“Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide clear forward guidance” — Anadolu Agency
“Kevin Warsh has described business investment as “the seed corn of future economic growth.”” — Washington Examiner
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
-
Fed expected to hold rates amid accelerating inflation ahead of November US midterms
Neutral Data-led preview of the meeting, with market odds and differing economist views.
Right1 article
-
Washington ExaminerR · · Opinion
The Fed thinks it’s fighting inflation. It’s starving the cure
Critical Opinion by an economic strategist urging the Fed to pause and criticising rate rises as harmful to investment and growth.
- 25 Oct 17:00 First Washington ExaminerR The Fed thinks it’s fighting inflation. It’s starving the cure Opinion
- 26 Oct 14:08 +21h 9m Anadolu AgencyN Fed expected to hold rates amid accelerating inflation ahead of November US midterms
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
Ask about this story
Loading…