Fox News Power Rankings now project a Democratic House in 2026; Senate remains a toss-up

Mixed · 2In its Power Rankings published on 13 October, Fox News for the first time this cycle forecast that Democrats will win the House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms, saying "the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year." 1 2 Mixed · 2The forecast gives Democrats an advantage in at least 219 seats (218 are needed for a majority) and Republicans in at least 198, with 18 toss-ups; another 20 races shifted toward Democrats this week. 1 2 Mixed · 2On a good night for Democrats, Fox projects about 237 seats, a gain of 22; a "great night" could reach 249. A good night for Republicans would leave them with about 216, two short of a majority. 1 2

Mixed · 2Fox attributes the shift to President Donald Trump's approval rating, which it says is lower than at the same point in 2018 or 2022, and to a Democratic generic ballot lead it describes as wider and more enduring than in the 2018 "blue wave", along with better Democratic candidates and a Republican redistricting push that may fall short. 1 2 Right · 1Individual district moves cited by Fox include Kentucky's 6th and Texas's 15th, Iowa's 1st and 3rd, three Pennsylvania seats, and New York's 19th (to Solid D) and 21st (Solid R to Likely R); it also says Republicans are in trouble with rural voters and that voters blame Republicans for higher gas, diesel and grocery prices. 1 Mixed · 2In the Senate, Fox rates the chamber a toss-up with 47 seats each for the parties and six toss-up states likely to decide control; if Democrats win all six they reach 53, while Republicans could avoid any losses by holding the same six. 1 2

Right · 1Fox added Minnesota to the Senate battleground list, moving it from Likely D to Lean D after a survey put Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan at 47% and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, at 43%, with 9% undecided. 1 Left · 1The Independent reported that the GOP currently holds the House 218 to 214 and that Fox anchor John Roberts called the forecast the first of its kind this cycle; it also quoted analyst Nate Silver saying Democrats "remain strong favorites to retake the House." 2 Left · 1The Independent adds context that Trump's approval is near historic lows amid the Iran war, high gas prices and inflation, and that Trump has pledged $5,000 to every American adult citizen if Republicans keep both chambers, a promise that has raised legal questions. 2