Gulf diesel exports stay far below pre-war levels even as crude shipments recover

Centre · 1Global diesel prices remain near record highs because Gulf producers have struggled to restore refined-fuel exports, even though crude shipments have recovered. 1 Centre · 1The South China Morning Post cited International Energy Agency data showing net diesel exports from Gulf countries averaged 390,000 barrels per day in August, just over a quarter of their level before the US-Israel war on Iran. 1 Centre · 1BBC Verify, using Kpler shipping data, reported that the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman) exported about 1.4 million barrels of diesel per day in 2025 and about 670,000 in September 2026. 2

Centre · 1The BBC attributes the Gulf decline to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian strikes on tankers and a US blockade of Iran's ports have badly disrupted traffic. Ship-tracking estimates suggest crude flows returned close to pre-war levels last month, partly because the US navy helped protect shipping, while refined diesel flows stayed far below. 2 Centre · 1Analysts quoted by the SCMP say Gulf infrastructure is geared towards crude. Zhao Xuyi of Guotai Junan Futures said crude exports recovered quickly through ship-to-ship transfers, but exporting six or seven separate refined products consistently has not yet been solved. 1 Centre · 1Russia is also exporting much less. The BBC, citing Kpler, said Russian diesel exports fell from about 810,000 barrels per day in 2025 to about 140,000 in September 2026, and global exports fell from 6.8 million to 5.8 million barrels per day. 2

Centre · 1BBC Verify concluded that the Iran conflict has cut global diesel exports more than the Ukraine war has, although analysts stress both are significant. US President Donald Trump has blamed Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries. 2 Centre · 2Prices have risen sharply. The BBC reported US retail diesel at $6.20 per gallon on 5 October, near the $6.50 record of 21 September and up from about $3.50 before the war, and UK diesel at 199p a litre. The SCMP calculated a rise of more than 66 per cent since the war began in late February. 2 1 Centre · 1The G7 announced on 2 October that it planned to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products over the coming weeks. Zhao said the release is limited and can ease only the short-term shortage, not the structural one. 1

Centre · 2Trump said Russia agreed to supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US immediately, with more in November. Kirill Dmitriev called the deal "historic", while oil analyst Rory Johnston called it a "nothing burger". The BBC described the deal as controversial. 1 2 Centre · 1Stocks are low. The IEA said observed global inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since the war began, US commercial distillate stocks were about 14 per cent below the five-year average, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was at about 283 million barrels, its lowest since 1982. Goldman Sachs projected that refinery processing would return to seasonal norms only in the second half of next year. 1