Historian Allan Lichtman predicts Democratic gains in US midterms
American University historian Allan Lichtman, whose 2024 forecast of a Harris win proved wrong, says Democrats are very likely to take the House and more likely than not to take the Senate in Tuesday's midterms. Breitbart stresses his 2024 miss; The National gives more detail on his forecast and background.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Allan Lichtman, an American University professor and historian, has predicted that Democrats will do well in the US midterm elections held on Tuesday 3 November 2026. BreitbartR “is predicting a major Democrat win in the midterm elections on Tuesday.” Read at Breitbart ↗ The NationalN “is back with a prediction for the midterm elections.” Read at The National ↗ Mixed · 2In a YouTube video released on Thursday night, Lichtman said there was a better than 90 per cent chance that Democrats take the House of Representatives; in an earlier interview with Hromadske Int., quoted by Breitbart, he put it at "90 percent plus". The NationalN “"We are predicting there's a better than 90 per cent chance that the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives," Prof Lichtman said.” Read at The National ↗ BreitbartR ““It’s almost certain, 90 percent plus, that Democrats will take over the House.” Read at Breitbart ↗ Mixed · 2On the Senate, The National reports he raised his estimate of a Democratic takeover from 67 to 70 per cent; Breitbart quotes him calling the Senate harder because Democrats must win four or five seats in deep red states, though "certainly possible". The NationalN “I originally had it at 67 per cent likelihood Democrats would retake the Senate. I am now going to say 70 per cent chance,” Read at The National ↗ BreitbartR “The Senate is more difficult because Democrats have to win quite a few seats, four or five seats, in deep red states.” Read at Breitbart ↗
Mixed · 2Lichtman did not use his "13 keys" system for the midterms. He cited polls, issue surveys, approval ratings and turnout; he told The Times that Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot by seven to 11 points, and that when a president's approval is as low as Donald Trump's, the White House party on average loses 40 House and six Senate seats, which he said was "not a prediction". The NationalN “Although he did not use his 13 keys system for the midterms” Read at The National ↗ BreitbartR “Lichtman said Democrats are leading Republicans by seven to 11 points on the generic congressional ballot”“It’s not a prediction, that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.” Read at Breitbart ↗ Mixed · 2He also pointed to higher Democratic enthusiasm and turnout, saying he was not basing his view only on polling, and told his co-host and son Sam Lichtman so when asked whether the polls might be wrong. BreitbartR “it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,”” Read at Breitbart ↗ The NationalN “"I'm not just basing it on polling, I've looked at lots of other factors as well,"” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1The National adds that he expects Democrats to "take the lead or break even" in the governor races, and that he believes Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will beat Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's Senate race to become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. The NationalN “said the Democrats would probably "take the lead or break even" in those elections.”“he believes the former public health official will become the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate.” Read at The National ↗
Mixed · 2Both outlets note his 2024 miss: he predicted Kamala Harris would beat Trump, and Trump won. The National says it was his first wrong call since 1981 by its account and that he later cited Biden's trashing by his own party, the unusual no-primary situation and social media disinformation; Breitbart says he blamed conservative media "disinformation" and Elon Musk. The NationalN “his prediction would be incorrect for the first time since 1981.”“perhaps the prolific amount of disinformation on social media meant voters might have become irrational and impractical” Read at The National ↗ BreitbartR “After Harris lost, Lichtman blamed his faulty prediction on conservative media “disinformation” and billionaire Elon Musk.” Read at Breitbart ↗ Mixed · 2Breitbart says critics argue many of his keys are open to interpretation, and disputes the assumptions behind his 2024 forecast on the economy, foreign policy and social unrest. The National says some pollsters and analysts have long called the system "smoke and mirrors". BreitbartR “critics say many ‘keys’ to his model are open to interpretation so they can conform to whatever the election outcome is.” Read at Breitbart ↗ The NationalN “have long criticised Prof Lichtman's 13 keys system as smoke and mirrors, celebrated.” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress; The National notes that if Democrats win both, Trump's power would weaken significantly. The NationalN “Currently, Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.” Read at The National ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Explanatory profile of the forecaster and his latest forecast, acknowledging both his past successes and his 2024 'embarrassment'.
- Emphasis
- Detailed odds, his methodology, Michigan Senate race and religious bigotry remarks, his career arc and new book.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Gives little on the specific Times interview data (generic ballot lead, historical seat-loss average).
- Charged language
- “fall from grace”“embarrassment”
- For example
-
“later suffered embarrassment when he chose Kamala Harris to win in 2024” — The National
“Some might have expected him to stay out of the spotlight after his fall from grace” — The National
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Leads with Lichtman's failed 2024 Harris forecast, treating the new prediction with scepticism and as part of a record of errors.
- Emphasis
- His past 'faulty' assumptions, critics of the keys model, his blaming of disinformation and Elon Musk, and a closing line on Democrats moving left with a Speaker Mike Johnson quote.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention his stated 70 per cent Senate figure, that he did not use the 13 keys for this forecast, or his earlier correct calls in 2016 and 2020.
- Charged language
- “Inaccurately Predicted”“faulty assumptions”“dubious track record”“radical leftist agenda”
What every side reports
- Lichtman predicts a Democratic win in the House in the 3 November 2026 midterms.
- He wrongly predicted Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump in 2024.
- He puts the chance of a Democratic House takeover above 90 per cent.
- He says Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage.
Where accounts differ
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How much weight his forecast deserves
- Centre
- The National notes his 2024 failure and critics but also his record of correct calls since 1984 and his stated openness to improving the system.
- Right
- Breitbart stresses his inaccurate 2024 prediction and 'dubious track record' and calls his assumptions untrue.
-
Whether he predicts a Democratic sweep of both chambers
- Centre
- The National reports a 70 per cent chance for the Senate, not a certainty.
- Right
- Breitbart says he believes Democrats will sweep the House and Senate, though quotes him calling the Senate difficult.
Allan Lichtman person
Says Democrats are very likely to win the House and more likely than not the Senate, based on approval ratings, the generic ballot and turnout rather than his 13 keys; acknowledges his 2024 error and says he is reviewing whether the system's premises still hold.
““Over the next four years, I'll be looking closely at whether or not the fundamental premises still hold,”” — The National
“Lichtman said Democrats are leading Republicans by seven to 11 points on the generic congressional ballot” — Breitbart
2026 US midterm elections event
The 3 November midterms will decide control of the House and Senate, both currently held by Republicans.
“Currently, Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.” — The National
North America1 outlet
Breitbart treats the forecast sceptically and in partisan terms, centred on Lichtman's 2024 error.
“The history professor who inaccurately predicted former Vice President Kamala Harris (D) would beat President Donald Trump (R) in 2024” — Breitbart
Breitbart
Middle East1 outlet
The National presents a profile-style report, with attention to the Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Arab American voters.
“he believes the former public health official will become the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate.” — The National
The National
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Famous election predictor Allan Lichtman makes US midterm forecast
Neutral Reports the forecast in detail with balanced background on his rise, 2024 miss and critics.
Right1 article
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Dismissive Frames the forecast through Lichtman's wrong 2024 call and critics' doubts about his model.
- 30 Oct 16:34 First BreitbartR Professor Who Inaccurately Predicted Kamala Harris Would Defeat Trump Predicts Democrats Will Win Midterms
- 2 Nov 21:00 +76h 26m The NationalN Famous election predictor Allan Lichtman makes US midterm forecast
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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