What a Democratic win in the Nov 3 midterms could mean for US foreign policy

Right · 1Nonpartisan analysts say Democrats have a good chance of winning the US House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, according to Reuters. 1 Left · 1Al Jazeera cites polls suggesting Democrats average an eight-point lead in the House and the Senate. 2 Right · 1Reuters says Democrats argue Republicans have let President Donald Trump's administration declare war and control spending, powers the Constitution reserves for Congress, and that a Democratic Congress could hem in his foreign policy. 1

Right · 1On Iran, Reuters reports that Trump launched a war on February 28 without congressional approval, and that Democrats have repeatedly voted to end the fighting unless he obtains it; one such resolution passed with a handful of Republican votes but the administration ignored it. With control of a chamber, Democrats could cut defense spending to press for approval and require officials to testify publicly. 1 Right · 1On Ukraine, Reuters says Trump has largely halted direct US aid and has angered many lawmakers, including Republicans, by lifting sanctions on Russian diesel and waiving sanctions on Russian energy weeks after signing them into law. It says that with both chambers Democrats could decide what gets voted on and pass new aid, which would likely reach the two-thirds majorities needed to override a veto. Representative Gregory Meeks, who could chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has introduced bipartisan legislation against the diesel plan. 1 Right · 1On Israel, Reuters reports support has fallen among Democrats over the Gaza war, and that nearly half of House Democrats voted this summer to cut off aid; Democrats could limit or end military aid, which was $3.8 billion in the latest fiscal year. Some who voted against the cut, such as Meeks, have backed limits on weapons like heavy bombs. 1

Right · 1Reuters adds that Democrats are more likely to limit military spending: Trump sought a 67% increase to $1.5 trillion, which Democrats blocked in the Senate, and Democrats say they will try to restore foreign aid that Trump withheld or cancelled. 1 Left · 1Al Jazeera's feature, by John T Psaropoulos, takes a European angle. Analysts told it a Democratic win would not fundamentally affect upcoming European elections and would bring a welcome improvement in transatlantic relations, but could have two adverse effects. 2 Left · 1The first is complacency about Europe's far right. Catherine Fieschi of Carnegie Europe said a Democratic win would be read as democracies bouncing back, and could prompt debate over whether to fear a Marine Le Pen victory; Le Pen leads polling for the April 18 French presidential election with about 34 percent. 2

Left · 1The second is that a weakened Trump might press Ukraine harder to accept a deal with Russia. Fieschi said Trump could end up "clinching deals with Putin as fast as he can", including a peace involving the loss of eastern Donbas, which Zelenskyy has called a strategic error and most Ukrainians oppose. Al Jazeera notes Trump has already used US early warning on ballistic missiles and Starlink navigation against Ukraine. 2 Left · 1Al Jazeera also cites polling showing European trust in the US has fallen: 31 percent see it as the most trustworthy ally, down from 51 percent in 2024 (Bertelsmann Stiftung), and 73 percent say Europe should go its own way. It says such shifts would be hard to reverse in a single congressional election. 2