IMF and World Bank annual meetings open in Bangkok amid Iran-war inflation worries

Mixed · 2Finance ministers, central bankers and other officials from IMF and World Bank member countries meet in Bangkok, Thailand, from Monday for the institutions' annual meetings. 1 2 Centre · 1The meetings are normally held in Washington for two consecutive years and in another member country every third year; the 2029 meetings are due in Abu Dhabi. 1 Right · 1Reuters, in copy carried by The Jerusalem Post, said the US-Israeli-led war with Iran, now in its eighth month, and the inflation and hardship it has caused are expected to dominate the agenda; the war began on 28 February. 2

Mixed · 2The National reports that the Strait of Hormuz's prolonged partial closure has pushed Brent crude roughly 30 per cent above prewar levels, while Reuters says Iran's closure of the strait shut off some 20% of the world's oil. 1 2 Centre · 1Other inflationary pressures cited include AI-driven electricity demand and the debt issuance it requires, US national debt reaching $40 trillion, and a 24-year high in the 10-year US Treasury yield this week, according to The National. 1 Centre · 1Central banks are tightening: the US Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point in September, starting a new tightening cycle; the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have also raised rates, and the Bank of England is expected to follow next month. Traders expect three more Fed hikes by July 2027, per CME Group data. 1

Mixed · 2IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said most countries should adopt a "prudently hawkish" posture and suggested austerity was returning for advanced economies, saying "Some very tough political choices stare us in the face". In her curtain-raiser speech she also warned, "Winter is coming." 1 2 Right · 1World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters global growth had held up better than feared, but pressure is building from soaring diesel prices, rising fertilizer costs and a looming "super" El Niño; the Bank is not revising its global forecasts down for now. 2 Right · 1The IMF has signalled little change to its 3% global growth forecast for 2026 and may raise next year's slightly, though Ukraine and Gulf states hit by Iranian strikes may see downgrades, according to Reuters. 2

Right · 1US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will skip the meetings and a G20 meeting, sending two senior officials while handling "domestic engagements", a US official said; Reuters said this may frustrate counterparts. 2 Right · 1G7 countries have agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, and President Donald Trump on Friday announced a deal with Russia to supply more diesel with a temporary waiver of US sanctions, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy criticised. 2 Centre · 1Low-income countries are a central concern. The World Bank has pledged up to $60 billion since the war began, the African Development Bank launched a $5.1 billion framework and the Asian Development Bank is mobilising $4 billion; the IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock $1.21 billion and Bangladesh has requested a programme. 1

Right · 1Public debt is at its highest since World War Two and will exceed 100% of GDP before 2030, the IMF says, and G20 diplomats see little appetite for a debt-service suspension like the one early in the Covid crisis, Reuters reported. 2 Mixed · 2Critics question the IMF's role: Boston University's Marina Zucker-Marques doubts low-income countries' appetite for IMF funding given conditionality, and Eurodad's Iolanda Fresnillo fears the review of conditionality policy "is just going to make things worse". 1 2 Centre · 1Defenders include Rachel Glennerster of the Centre for Global Development, who said the international financial institutions are "weathering these crises remarkably well compared to other multilaterals". 1

Right · 1Reuters also noted security concerns for the 10,000-plus travellers because flight routes to Bangkok often pass through the Middle East, following recent attacks on Saudi airports. 2