Iran fortifies nuclear sites and rallies public for possible US strikes after midterms

Centre · 2Iran is strengthening its defences, rallying loyalists and threatening a wider response against the US and its Gulf allies as it prepares for possible American attacks after the 3 November US midterm elections, according to a Wall Street Journal report. 1 2 Centre · 2Satellite images show work at nuclear sites and border areas. Last month Iran built makeshift dirt mounds around its Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites to impede any ground raid, according to Vantor satellite images analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security. 1 2 Centre · 2Iran is also preparing its population. State media broadcasts daily pro-government gatherings, Tehran billboards advertise civilian courses in firing shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles and using sniper rifles, the Revolutionary Guard publicised its first female commando units, and a Guard unit told kindergartners in Sabzevar stories about the earlier fighting. 1 2

Centre · 2Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Jalali, who is in charge of Iran's contingency plans, said at the end of September that airports, seaports and power plants had prepared for wartime conditions with shelters and backup supplies. 1 2 Centre · 2Iranian officials have warned publicly and privately that a renewed US attack would bring escalation across the region. Some have hinted at land incursions into neighbouring countries, according to people familiar with the warnings. Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top national security official, said on Sunday that Tehran could target the United Arab Emirates, data centres and internet cables. Tehran has also warned Arab officials it could strike Saudi oil facilities, and told mediators it would more aggressively target US personnel, including by trying to sink US warships. 1 2 Centre · 2The US is also preparing. A third aircraft carrier strike group and another Marine expeditionary unit are heading to the Middle East, and the Pentagon is weighing sending more air-defence equipment and munitions to regional bases. Last week it moved a dozen B-1 bombers from a UK base over concerns that the Revolutionary Guard planned a drone attack. 1 2

Centre · 2President Donald Trump ruled out an attack before the 3 November midterms last week but has publicly considered striking the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, and US officials say the military is preparing options for new strikes. 1 2 Centre · 2Fighting at sea continues. At least three commercial vessels were hit in and around the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations, and a drone attack set fire to the Emirati tanker Petro Dolphin near Oman, leaving two Indian sailors missing. The WSJ also reports that a Houthi missile attack on Riyadh's airport on Saturday killed at least 13 people. 1 2 Centre · 2Direct US-Iran fighting has largely been on hold since Trump called off plans for a major escalation in late July, partly over worries about missile-interceptor supplies, the WSJ has reported. Iran has used the pause to rebuild missile and drone facilities, and supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei praised the work in early September while acknowledging supply-chain struggles. The WSJ describes the war, now more than seven months old, as largely deadlocked. 1 2

Centre · 2Analysts quoted by the WSJ read the posture as both deterrence and preparation. Iran has little ability to defend against advanced US jets, bombers or cruise missiles, so it has an incentive to deter with threats. The WSJ adds that the belligerent tone distracts from economic hardship as the US tightens sanctions. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said the war footing serves Iran for now given the impasse, and Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said the measures are "both deterrence and war planning". 1 2