Iran war and prices put Republican foreign policy hawks under pressure before midterms

Centre · 1The war with Iran, which the US launched alongside Israel on 28 February, has become a liability for Republicans ahead of next week's midterm elections, according to The National, including for several prominent hawks on foreign affairs committees. 1 Centre · 1The conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks and helped push US petrol prices past about $1.13 a litre, more than 40 per cent above their level at the start of Trump's term, The National reports. 1 Centre · 1Democrats are linking Republican support for the war to higher fuel prices and to what they say is Trump's lack of a clear plan to end it. An AP-NORC poll found about eight in 10 registered voters want the next Congress to prioritise lowering the cost of living, and many also want it to end the war. 1

Centre · 1Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a member of the Senate foreign relations committee, voted against a September resolution that would have required Trump to end the war or seek congressional authorisation. He now faces a competitive race against Democrat Mary Peltola, with recent polls showing her narrowly ahead. Veterans' group VoteVets launched a $225,000 ad campaign against him in August, and the Department of Justice sued Alaska election officials over certification if he loses, citing a similarly named candidate on the ballot. 1 Centre · 1Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts, also on the Senate foreign relations committee, voted against the same September resolution and faces independent Dan Osborn in a race polls show as too close to call. Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, who voted in March against a resolution restricting Trump's military authority, faces a competitive race against Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump won by about 16 points in 2024. 1 Centre · 1In New York, Republican Representative Mike Lawler of the House foreign affairs committee, who opposed a House resolution restricting Trump's war powers, is in a tight race with Democrat Cait Conley. A September Emerson College poll found 52 per cent of district voters opposed US military action in Iran and 37 per cent supported it, with Conley ahead 48 to 46, within the 4.9-point margin of error. 1

Left · 1Writing in The Conversation, foreign policy lecturer Andrew Payne notes that few voters will think explicitly about foreign policy: a Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey found 37% named inflation and the cost of living as their top voting issue, while just 2% named the Iran war. 2 Mixed · 2Payne argues, however, that voters increasingly blame the administration's foreign policy for the economy. He cites an Institute for Global Affairs survey in which 81% said the Iran war has raised the cost of living, a YouGov poll in which the Iran war was the most common explanation for local gas price rises (41%), and a Reuters/Ipsos-style concern echoed in The National's report that 78 per cent of Americans blame Trump's policies for prices outpacing earnings. 2 1 Left · 1Payne also points to tariffs: the effective rate is 11%, almost four times its January 2025 level, according to the Yale Budget Lab, and 81% in the Chicago Council survey say tariffs have hurt the cost of living. He says Trump's approval stands at a historic low of 36%. 2

Left · 1Payne says Democrats now lead Republicans by ten points in a New York Times/Siena survey on handling foreign wars, and by 24 points in an Economist/YouGov survey on keeping the US out of wars. He compares the situation with 2006, when backlash to George W. Bush's Middle East war gave Democrats control of Congress, and suggests Republicans may face a similar result. 2 Left · 1Payne adds that Trump's recent temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel imports, seen as a response to gas prices, draws attention to his failure to end the war in Ukraine and could backfire. 2