Israeli polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs both near 52 seats, short of a majority

Right · 1Nearly two weeks before Israel's election, polls by Maariv, Channel 13 and KAN News showed an inconclusive race: Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party led all three surveys, but neither bloc reached the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority. 1 Right · 1The polling average, published by The Jerusalem Post under a Maariv byline, put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc (including Ofer Winter's People of Israel party) and the Zionist opposition at about 52.3 seats each. The average is based on four polls and is not a new survey or a forecast. 1 Right · 1The individual polls differed. Maariv had the two blocs level at 52 seats each after Likud gained a seat. Channel 13 had Yashar and Likud tied at 20 seats each, with Netanyahu's bloc at 55 and Eisenkot's at 50. KAN had Yashar at 23 and Likud at 21, with Eisenkot's bloc at 52 and Netanyahu's at 51. Channel 12 had the opposition at 54 and the coalition at 49. 1

Right · 1Parties near the 3.25% electoral threshold, roughly four seats, could shape the result. In the polls cited, Winter's People of Israel crossed the threshold in Channel 13's poll with five seats but fell below it in KAN's and Channel 12's. The Hendel–Zelekha Reservists-Economic list polled four seats in KAN and Channel 12, and was below the threshold in Channel 13's poll. 1 2 Right · 1A JTA analysis by Tomer Almagor, carried by The Jerusalem Post on 14 October, said Netanyahu failed to unite smaller right-wing parties. Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich), Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and Ofer Winter's party are running separately, so one or more could fall below the threshold and waste votes that would help his bloc. The article calls his bloc's position the weakest in a decade, quoting political scientist Gayil Talshir. 2 Right · 1The same article said the opposition-aligned bloc had also fallen sharply in recent weeks, from roughly 58–59 seats to around 52–53, while most polls put Netanyahu's bloc at 52–53. The remaining seats go to Arab-led parties, with the Joint List and Ra'am projected at about 14. Talshir linked the opposition's decline to the merger of three Arab parties into a Joint List rather than to lost support for the bloc. 2

Right · 1Both camps have pledged not to include Arab parties in a government, but Talshir suggested that could be tested after a deadlock. She floated a scenario in which Ra'am backs an Eisenkot-led minority government from outside the coalition. Pollster Shmuel Rosner said there was "a very small chance that either bloc will be able to reach 61 seats". If neither can form a coalition, Israel could face another election, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister. 2 Left · 1The Guardian's profile, published on 15 October, describes Eisenkot as a former military chief of staff and the main opposition candidate who contrasts with Netanyahu in style. It says he is pushing for a full investigation of the intelligence failures behind the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack and for an end to the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption. 3 Left · 1The Guardian also says Eisenkot is non-committal on a two-state solution, saying "I've never said that the solution is two states for two peoples". He opposes the planned E1 settlement block but supports settlement in general, and would put the army back in charge of the West Bank in place of Smotrich. Analysts quoted say a government under him would be one of "containment" and better management rather than a change of direction. 3