Key House and Senate races to decide US Congress control in midterms

Left · 1The US midterm elections are next Tuesday, and CBC News says the most important contests are in a handful of states and districts where polling shows Republicans and Democrats in tight races. 1 Mixed · 2CBC reports that Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control of the 435-member House of Representatives, a target it says polling analysis puts within reach; the Washington Examiner likewise says Democrats seem primed to retake the House. 1 2 Mixed · 2The Senate is the harder task: CBC says Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-49 majority, which means flipping at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas or Kansas. The Examiner lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as their best chances. 1 2

Left · 1CBC highlights Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins has held the seat for 30 years in a state that has not backed a Republican for president since 1988; her Democratic opponent Jackson entered in July after original nominee Graham Platner stepped down amid allegations he sexually assaulted a former partner. It also flags the open Michigan seat, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Rogers and Trump has attacked El-Sayed, calling him a "jihadist" at a rally. 1 Left · 1In Ohio, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown; in Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton, whom Trump endorsed over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. CBC says polls suggest Trump put the Texas seat at risk, and that a Republican loss there would be the most significant midterm repudiation of Trump. 1 Left · 1Other Senate races CBC covers include Iowa (Republican Ashley Hinson v Democrat Josh Turek for the seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst), North Carolina (Democrat Roy Cooper v Republican Michael Whatley for the seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis), Kansas (Sen. Roger Marshall v Democrat Adam Hamilton) and Alaska (Sen. Dan Sullivan v Democrat Mary Peltola). In the House, it says no more than 50 of 435 seats are rated truly competitive by analysts. 1

Right · 1The Washington Examiner says North Carolina is the only one of those races where Democrats are outright favourites, with Cooper leading Whatley by more than 10 points in the RealClearPolitics average, and argues that third-party candidates could tip Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. 2 Right · 1In Alaska, an unaffiliated retired teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan shares a name with the Republican incumbent. Trump and GOP officials say Democrats put him up to confuse voters; he and Peltola reject that. The Examiner says a New York Times report described a 2025 Peltola-aide effort to find people named "Dan Sullivan" to run, and notes that ballot-stacking is not illegal and is common to both parties in the state. 2 Mixed · 2Trump confirmed he ordered the Justice Department to sue to block Alaska's results if the Republican incumbent does not win; CBC calls the stated reason ostensible, and the Examiner says experts question the suit's legal standing. The RealClearPolitics average had Peltola 1.2% ahead of Sullivan. 2 1

Right · 1In Iowa, the Examiner says Hinson's 0.6-point lead over Turek halves when Libertarian Thomas Laehn is included, and that two Democratic super PACs have spent on ads and mailers backing him; Laehn says the spending was without his knowledge or permission. In Ohio, Husted trails Brown by 3.3 points head to head and Brown's lead shrinks to 2.5 with Libertarian Bill Redpath and independent Gregory Levy included; both disavow outside spending, including more than $1.58 million backing Levy from Republican groups. 2 Right · 1In Texas, the RealClearPolitics average gave Talarico a 1.8-point lead over Paxton, and Libertarian Ted Brown, who won just over 2% in 2018, says Republicans unwilling to back Paxton or Talarico may turn to him. 2