South Africa's 4 November municipal elections: the key metros and the ANC's decline

Right · 1South Africans vote in municipal elections on 4 November amid voter frustration over poor service delivery, unstable local coalition governments and rising costs. 1 Right · 1Reuters describes the vote, held every five years, as an important gauge of the political landscape before the 2029 national election, with support for the African National Congress (ANC) continuing to erode. 1 Centre · 1The Economist says polls point to the ANC's worst showing in a nationwide election since the end of white rule in 1994. It puts the average of polls over the past six months at 32% for the ANC and 27% for the Democratic Alliance (DA), against 46% and 22% five years ago. 2

Right · 1In Johannesburg, which Reuters says has had seven mayors since the 2021 local elections as coalitions unravelled, the DA named Helen Zille, a former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier aged 75, as its mayoral candidate months ahead of its rivals. 1 Right · 1Recent polls put the DA above 30% and the ANC above 20% in Johannesburg, raising the possibility of a coalition between the two parties, which have governed together nationally since the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in 2024, though each could first seek deals with smaller parties. 1 Centre · 1The Economist says Zille's chances depend on forming a coalition and on winning black voters, who make up about three-quarters of the city. It says the DA has been seen as a 'white party', but that governing with the ANC nationally has helped its image, and that the DA expects to double its share of the black vote nationally from about 4.5% to 9%. 2

Centre · 1The Economist describes Johannesburg's problems: nearly half the bulk water it supplies is never paid for, it spends more than it raises, and fixing its infrastructure backlog would cost roughly 25 times its capital budget. Zille pledges to get a grip on finances, make merit-based appointments to city agencies and root out corruption. 2 Right · 1In Tshwane, the DA won the metro from the ANC in 2016 but lost power in 2024 when its partner ActionSA backed an ANC-led no-confidence motion. A multi-party coalition led by ActionSA, the centre-right party founded in 2020 by Herman Mashaba, has governed since. 1 Right · 1The DA is heavily favoured to keep Cape Town, which it has governed since 2006 and where it has held an outright majority since 2011. Polls suggest it should stay above 50%, though some analysts expect a tighter contest. The DA is also targeting Nelson Mandela Bay, now run by an ANC-led coalition. 1

Right · 1In the Durban area, Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) threatens to displace the ANC. Polls suggest MKP could win 40% to 50% while the ANC falls to the low teens. 1 Right · 1In Ekurhuleni, polls suggest ANC support could fall from 38% in 2021 to about 25%, level with the DA. Buffalo City (59% for the ANC in 2021) and Mangaung (51%) remain the ANC's strongest metros and tests of its urban support. 1 Centre · 1The Economist notes that most former ANC supporters either do not vote or choose parties other than the DA, such as MK, the Economic Freedom Fighters or ActionSA. It adds that Zille may not reach her 40% target and that there is no guarantee she will become mayor. 2