Eight Senate races in focus as Democrats need a net four seats for control

Mixed · 2Thirty-five Senate seats are up in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, and a handful of close races will decide which party controls the chamber next year. 1 2 Mixed · 2Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats, with two independents who caucus with them, hold 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, and Republicans can lose three and still control the chamber through Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote, according to ABC News. 1 2 Mixed · 2In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers for the seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll (Oct. 19-22) put El-Sayed ahead 51.4% to 45.1%. ABC News rates the race Lean Democrat. It reports that Republicans have attacked El-Sayed over his faith and ethnicity, that President Donald Trump called him a "vicious, violent jihadist", and that El-Sayed denies any terror ties and calls the attacks Islamophobic. Anadolu notes he would be the first Muslim elected to the Senate. 2 1

Mixed · 2In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who beat Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff after a late Trump endorsement, faces Democrat James Talarico. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. A Univision/YouGov poll (Oct. 13-21) had Talarico ahead 50% to 45%. ABC News calls it the most expensive Senate race in history, with outside groups giving more than a quarter-billion dollars to elect Paxton, and recounts Paxton's 2023 impeachment, from which he was acquitted, and a 2015 securities fraud case settled with a pretrial agreement. Anadolu mentions heavy spending by Elon Musk. 1 2 Mixed · 2In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, who entered late after original nominee Graham Platner dropped out following sexual assault allegations. A Marist poll (Oct. 22-25) showed Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%, with a 6.6-point margin of error. 1 2 Mixed · 2In Ohio, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for the remainder of Vance's term. Anadolu cites a Fox News poll (Oct. 15-19) with Brown ahead 52% to 47% and an InsiderAdvantage poll (Oct. 21-22) with Brown ahead 47% to 44%. Both outlets point to data centers and costs as issues. 2 1

Mixed · 2In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting. Data for Progress (Oct. 8-16) had Peltola ahead 47% to 44% in first-choice support, and Public Policy Polling (Oct. 14-15) had her ahead 48% to 47%. ABC News reports that an independent also named Dan Sullivan is on the ballot and that on Oct. 23 Trump directed the Justice Department to sue preemptively to block certification if the incumbent narrowly loses. Both outlets link voter strain to costs tied to the Iran war. 2 1 Mixed · 2In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek for the seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, and polls differ: InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 21-22) had Hinson ahead 47% to 45%, while Marist (Oct. 8-11) had Turek ahead 48% to 45%. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who has conceded it is "quite a close race", faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor; Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. 2 1 Mixed · 2Republicans appear to have written off North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces former RNC chair Michael Whatley for the seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. A Quantus Insights poll (Oct. 24-25) had Cooper ahead 51.4% to 42.8%. ABC News also says Republicans seem to have abandoned efforts to unseat Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, whom an AJC/University of Georgia poll (Oct. 7-15) had ahead 48% to 40% over Rep. Mike Collins. 2 1

Centre · 1Anadolu also covers two Democratic-held or contested seats that ABC does not: in New Hampshire, a Rasmussen poll had Rep. Chris Pappas ahead of former Sen. John Sununu 50% to 44%. In Nebraska, an independent, Dan Osborn, led Sen. Pete Ricketts 46% to 45% in a GBAO poll, and Osborn has not committed to caucusing with either party. 2