Lancet commission lists 17 catastrophic health threats, with AI misuse and nuclear war top

Left · 2The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has published a risk assessment identifying 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years. 1 2 Left · 1Two of them, malicious use of AI (including AI-created bioweapons) and nuclear conflict leading to nuclear famine, are said to carry a risk of human extinction within 75 years, although the report says their likelihood remains low. 1 Left · 2The commission modelled the years of good health lost to sickness, disability or early death for each threat, a measure called disability-adjusted life years (Dalys); threats that could cause more than 1bn cumulative Dalys were deemed "major catastrophic threats". 1 2

Left · 2The other 15 threats are air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas health aid, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing. 1 2 Left · 1Metro reports worst-case figures of 9.35bn Dalys for nuclear war and 10.4bn for malicious AI, says nuclear conflict could kill 133 million people by 2100, and puts obesity at 23.1bn Dalys. 2 Left · 2Limiting global heating to about 1.8C rather than 4.4C could prevent 1.89bn lost years of healthy life, according to the report. 1 2

Left · 1The Guardian reports that a collapse or steep reduction in international health aid could cause up to 1.5bn Dalys before 2100, nearly 70% of them in sub-Saharan Africa, following aid cuts by donors including the US and UK. 1 Left · 1Metro adds that faster progress on education for women and children in sub-Saharan Africa could stop the loss of 16.1bn healthy years. 2 Left · 2Co-chair Prof Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, said leaders' decisions today will shape the next generation's health, that the threats are interconnected and must be addressed together, and that delay shifts and raises costs. 1 2

Left · 1Commission member Ibrahim Abubakar of UCL said the aim was not to scare people but to show policymakers the magnitude of difference that action can make; to be listed, a threat also had to have potential solutions. 1 Left · 2The 35-member commission calls for readiness to manage the threats, support for scientific innovation and better tracking of emerging hazards; its findings were to be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, and the assessment will be updated annually. 1 2