Leaked Russian plan reportedly targets Ukraine's power grid and nuclear plants this winter

LeftThe New York Times reported that Ukrainian authorities obtained a Russian Defence Ministry document outlining a plan to disable Ukraine's energy system, and that the paper obtained a copy of the Russian-language document. 1 LeftUkrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal showed the document to European partners: Meduza, citing the Times, says two European politicians saw it in late September, while the Daily Mirror says it was shown in Paris two weeks ago. 1 2 LeftAccording to the reports, the plan envisages a large-scale campaign of up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs, including jet-powered drones and guided aerial bombs, hitting substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants and boiler houses. 2 1

LeftThe Mirror, relaying the Times, says the plan includes missile strikes on electrical switchyards meant to shut down Ukraine's three operating nuclear power stations; it notes the switchyards lie less than a mile from the reactors, creating a risk of disaster if a strike goes astray. 2 LeftMeduza reports the plan names Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as main targets, aiming to cut electricity and heat supplies there by 90% and disable much of their sewage systems, with the ultimate goal of provoking a humanitarian crisis by cutting electricity, heat and water. 1 LeftThe Mirror adds that Shmyhal reportedly said Moscow plans dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs against Ukraine's water system, which it describes as the first such large-scale attack on that network. 2

LeftThe document reportedly aims to eliminate nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity, almost as much as Ukraine had at the end of summer 2026; in August Shmyhal told parliament the country would reach 21 gigawatts by year end, against peak demand of 18 gigawatts last winter, though experts told the Times continuing strikes could undo that. 1 LeftUkrainian authorities pointed to a Wednesday attack that struck a large thermal power plant and other energy facilities in Kyiv, leaving several neighbourhoods without power or water, as the start of Russia's winter campaign, according to the Mirror. 2 LeftOn 1 October Russian drones attacked a Dnipro bridge in Kyiv three times, which Meduza describes as the first deliberate strike on a Kyiv Dnipro bridge since the full-scale invasion; the Southern Bridge was closed the next morning and traffic restricted on two others. 1

LeftThe Mirror notes the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe's largest, has been at the centre of fighting, and that the IAEA was told in May a lab there had been hit. Russia's response to the reported plan is not given in either article. 2