Maariv poll: Eisenkot leads Netanyahu as better PM; most back unity government if deadlock
A Maariv poll published 16 October, 11 days before Israel's 27 October election, shows the Netanyahu bloc and the opposition tied at 51 seats each. Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 48% to 41% as better prime minister, and a majority prefers a unity government to another election.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2A Maariv poll published on Friday 16 October, 11 days before the 27 October general election, found Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and the Jewish opposition tied at 51 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset. Anadolu AgencyN “both Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition would win 51 seats each in the 120-member Knesset” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ The Jerusalem PostRC “leaving the two blocs tied” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Mixed · 2Arab parties were projected at a combined 14 seats, and the Reservists-Economic Party at four; that party is not counted in either bloc, and neither bloc would reach the 61 seats needed even with it. The Jerusalem PostRC “Even if it were added to either side, however, neither bloc would reach the 61 seats needed for a majority.” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “Arab lawmakers, meanwhile, were projected to win 14 seats, while the Reservists Party would secure four” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Mixed · 2By party, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar led with 21 seats, followed by Likud with 18, B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett) with 13 and Yair Golan's Democrats with nine. Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, the Joint List and United Torah Judaism had eight each, Shas seven, and Religious Zionism and Ra'am six each. Ofer Winter's party also passed the threshold with four. The Jerusalem PostRC “Yashar polls the highest, at 21 seats, with B'Yachad trailing behind at 13 seats.” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party with 21 seats, Naftali Bennett’s Together 13, Yair Golan’s Democrats nine” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Right · 1Jerusalem Post reported that Likud fell two seats from the previous week's Maariv poll, while the Arab parties gained one seat to reach a combined high of 14. It said each bloc lost one seat, because United Torah Judaism gained one and People of Israel crossed the threshold. The Jerusalem PostRC “Likud fell by two seats to just 18”“the coalition bloc lost only one seat, falling to 51” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Mixed · 2On who would make a better prime minister, 48% chose Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff, and 41% chose Netanyahu. Against Bennett, Netanyahu was tied at 43% each, and against Avigdor Liberman he led 43% to 37%. The Jerusalem PostRC “48% of people think Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot would make a better prime minister than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had 41% support”“Netanyahu and Bennett were tied at 43% support each” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “Eisenkot, a former Israeli army chief of staff, remained ahead of Netanyahu with 48% support compared with 41% for the incumbent” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Mixed · 2If the vote produces no clear result, 55% would prefer a unity government to another election, 27% would prefer a new election, and 18% were unsure. The Jerusalem Post reports this as a majority and gives the 27% and 18% figures. Anadolu AgencyN “55% of Israelis prefer a national unity government over another election” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ The Jerusalem PostRC “Only 27% said they would prefer another election, while 18% were unsure” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗
Mixed · 2Views differed by bloc. Among opposition voters, 54% would back a unity government only if a leader from their bloc headed it. Among coalition voters, 32% would prefer another election, and those preferring a unity government led by Netanyahu were put at 36% by Anadolu and at nearly 40% by the Jerusalem Post. Anadolu AgencyN “Among coalition voters, 36% backed a unity government led by Netanyahu, while 32% preferred another election” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ The Jerusalem PostRC “Nearly 40% said they would prefer a unity government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Right · 1The Jerusalem Post also reported that 79% of respondents were optimistic their chosen bloc would win, including 90% of coalition voters and 75% of opposition voters. The Jerusalem PostRC “Among coalition voters, 90% said they were optimistic and expected their bloc to win, compared with 75% of opposition voters” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Mixed · 2The poll was run by Lazar Research with Panel4ALL on 14 and 15 October among 700 Israelis aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs. Anadolu gives a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. The Jerusalem PostRC “The poll was conducted on October 14 and 15 among a representative sample of Israel's population aged 18 and over” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗ Anadolu AgencyN “a random sample of 700 Israelis, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Centre · 1Anadolu adds context: Israelis do not elect the prime minister directly, a government needs 61 lawmakers, and both Netanyahu's camp and the main Jewish opposition parties reject relying on Arab parties. Anadolu AgencyN “Both Netanyahu’s camp and the main Jewish opposition parties reject relying on Arab parties to form a government.”“Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Right · 1In a Jerusalem Post opinion column, Yaakov Katz, a former editor-in-chief of the paper, argued that another election would be catastrophic. He said Netanyahu, Eisenkot and the other leaders should at least explore a unity government, while acknowledging doubts about trusting Netanyahu and calling the idea unrealistic today. The Jerusalem PostRC “ANOTHER ELECTION, in my mind, would be catastrophic.”“I know how unrealistic this sounds today, but it deserves consideration if the alternative is yet another election.” Read at The Jerusalem Post ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Anadolu leads with the tied blocs and the 55% who favour a unity government. It gives the seat breakdown and explains how Israeli government formation works.
- Emphasis
- The tie, the 61-seat threshold, the rejection of reliance on Arab parties, and the margin of error.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Omits the head-to-head results against Bennett and Liberman, the optimism question and the week-on-week seat changes.
- For example
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“Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition tied, with neither reaching the majority needed to form a government” — Anadolu Agency
“Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister.” — Anadolu Agency
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- The Jerusalem Post leads on the unity-government preference and Eisenkot's lead, with fuller poll detail. A separate opinion column urges the leaders to consider unity to avoid another election.
- Emphasis
- Head-to-head matchups, optimism by bloc, weekly seat changes, and the opinion piece on avoiding a sixth-election-style stalemate.
- Leaves out or plays down
- The news report gives no overall unity-government percentage (only 'majority') and no margin of error.
- Charged language
- “catastrophic”“political paralysis”
- For example
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“giving Eisenkot a significant lead” — The Jerusalem Post
“Netanyahu is also right that the opposition's boycott of him has contributed to the prospect of deadlock.” — The Jerusalem Post
What every side reports
- The Maariv poll was published on 16 October, ahead of the 27 October election.
- Both blocs are projected at 51 seats, short of the 61 needed.
- Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 48% to 41% as better prime minister.
- 27% prefer another election and 18% are unsure if the vote is inconclusive.
- 54% of opposition voters back a unity government only if their bloc leads it.
- The poll sampled 700 respondents.
Where accounts differ
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Share of coalition voters preferring a unity government led by Netanyahu
- Centre
- Anadolu says 36%.
- Right
- Jerusalem Post says nearly 40%.
Gadi Eisenkot person
Eisenkot's Yashar is the largest party in the poll and he leads Netanyahu on the better-prime-minister question. Opposition voters mostly back a unity government only under their own bloc's leader.
“Yashar polls the highest, at 21 seats” — The Jerusalem Post
“A majority of opposition voters (54%) said they would support a unity government only if it were led by a leader from their bloc.” — The Jerusalem Post
Benjamin Netanyahu person
Netanyahu trails Eisenkot 41% to 48%. His bloc is tied at 51 seats, with Likud at 18. About a third of coalition voters want a unity government under him and 32% prefer another election.
“Among coalition voters, 36% backed a unity government led by Netanyahu, while 32% preferred another election” — Anadolu Agency
“Likud fell by two seats to just 18” — The Jerusalem Post
Israel1 outlet
The Jerusalem Post gives granular poll detail and adds an opinion column urging unity to avoid repeated elections.
“a large majority of Israelis (79%) were optimistic” — The Jerusalem Post
“another round of elections cannot be treated as an acceptable outcome” — The Jerusalem Post
The Jerusalem Post
Middle East1 outlet
Anadolu summarises the poll for an outside audience, explaining that the prime minister is not directly elected and noting the Arab parties' 14 seats.
“Arab lawmakers, meanwhile, were projected to win 14 seats” — Anadolu Agency
Anadolu Agency
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Netanyahu, opposition blocs tied as 55% back unity government if election inconclusive: Poll
Neutral Wire-style summary leading on the tied blocs and 55% unity support, with context on Israel's system.
Right2 articles
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Majority of Israelis favor unity government if October 27 election ends without clear winner - poll
Neutral Detailed poll report leading on unity-government preference, with Eisenkot's lead and seat tallies.
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The Jerusalem PostRC · · Opinion
Israel cannot afford another election: Why Netanyahu, Eisenkot must consider unity - opinion
Alarmist Opinion column warning that another election would repeat the pre-7 October political paralysis and urging leaders to explore unity.
- 16 Oct 07:06 First The Jerusalem PostRC Majority of Israelis favor unity government if October 27 election ends without clear winner - poll
- 16 Oct 10:56 +3h 50m The Jerusalem PostRC Israel cannot afford another election: Why Netanyahu, Eisenkot must consider unity - opinion Opinion
- 16 Oct 15:12 +8h 6m Anadolu AgencyN Netanyahu, opposition blocs tied as 55% back unity government if election inconclusive: Poll
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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