Mahmood doubles most migrants' settlement wait to 10 years but exempts care workers, amid U-turn row

Left · 2Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced in a statement to the Commons on Monday 2 November new rules on how long legal migrants must wait for permanent settlement (indefinite leave to remain, ILR) in the UK, publishing the Home Office response to last year's consultation. 1 2 Centre · 1A Home Office source confirmed to the Evening Standard that Mahmood will make a statement in the House of Commons setting out her final decision. 3 Mixed · 2Under the plans published for consultation, the standard qualifying period would double from five to 10 years, and some workers in occupations below graduate level, including care workers, could face 15 years, subject to proposed exemptions and reductions. 4 5

Right · 1In the Daily Mail's account of the original proposals, those who had claimed benefits for up to 12 months would have waited 15 years, those on benefits for more than a year 20 years, and anyone who entered illegally, such as by small boat, up to 25 years, while senior public-sector workers such as doctors and nurses would have had a five-year route. 6 Right · 2The Mail says between 1.3 million and 2.2 million foreign nationals are due to qualify for ILR between this year and 2030, including 463,000 who came on the care worker visa; Reuters, carried by the Straits Times, says the government cites around 350,000 lower-skilled workers and their dependants expected to become eligible in the coming years. 6 7 Centre · 1The Standard reports that the consultation on the proposals drew more than 200,000 responses over nearly a year. 3

Left · 1Mahmood has proposed that the wait could be cut for migrants who show contributions to their communities through a points-based system or who earn higher incomes. 4 Left · 1The Guardian reported in July that the prime minister, Andy Burnham, was considering exempting hundreds of thousands of care workers; the final rules do allow up to 300,000 care-sector people to apply after five years, while most other professions face the longer waits. 2 Left · 1Al Jazeera reports that Mahmood told Parliament hundreds of thousands of care workers will be exempt from the toughest rules: they can settle after five years if they have met their visa conditions and earn at least £25,000 a year. 8

Left · 1Al Jazeera's account of the final rules, due to take effect next year and apply retroactively to workers already in the country, ties eligibility to income: those earning over £50,000 can apply after five years, those over £125,000 after three, and everyone else faces 10 years. 8 Left · 1Al Jazeera says refugees arriving by the government's new safe and legal routes can settle after five years, other refugees face a 20-year standard wait, and those who entered by an illegal method such as a small boat face an extra 10 years, so up to 30; it also lists disqualifiers including a criminal record, insufficient English, debts to government, or under three years of national insurance contributions. 8 Mixed · 2Mahmood told MPs "Settlement should not be automatic. It should be earned" and that half a million people would settle later than otherwise; Al Jazeera says the government estimates up to 1.4 million people will receive settled status between 2026 and 2030, while the BBC cites a Home Office forecast of around 1.6 million. 8 9

Centre · 1The BBC reports Home Office calculations that 196,000 care workers and adult dependants could settle between 2026 and 2030 at an estimated lifetime cost of £9.5bn; its political editor Chris Mason notes the IPPR argues the £10bn figure was never a real saving, since delaying ILR saves only welfare costs while the figure includes long-run pension and care costs. 9 10 Centre · 2The BBC reports that care workers who arrived before May 2025 and earn at least £25,000 a year will keep the five-year route; the Standard adds that care workers who do not qualify will be able to apply for a new five-year visa and seek settlement after that. 11 12 Right · 1The Express reports Mahmood said about 250,000 people including dependants arrived or switched into the social care visa route between 2022 and 2025 and that around a quarter had failed to meet their visa conditions; it adds that the government has not confirmed a timetable for implementation, that detailed rule changes and a full impact assessment are still to come, and that existing settled status will not be removed. 13

Mixed · 2According to the BBC, the original plans would have delayed 799,000 people from gaining permanent residency and the revised plans delay 517,000; the Mail says the Home Office document puts those becoming eligible by 2030 at 1.9 million, of whom about 500,000 will wait more than five years. 11 14 Left · 1The Mirror adds that the government scrapped a proposal to let migrants earn ILR faster through volunteering, citing safeguarding and verification concerns, and that care workers whose application fails will get a second chance; Mahmood said "no-one will be punished for the sins of their employer". 1 Mixed · 2Burnham said the proposals were based on "control, contribution" and that Mahmood "has my full support"; on Tuesday Mahmood declined to say whether he had told her to change tack, and denied the change was a U-turn, saying the consultation had produced a fair settlement. 1 11

Mixed · 2Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Tuesday 3 November, Mahmood said there would still be "savings in the billions" but acknowledged they would be below the £10bn estimated for her original plans, and declined to give a cost for the revised plans, saying a full impact assessment would come when the immigration rules are laid before Parliament; the Mail reports officials saying the £10bn figure was out of date and "a few billion" would be saved. 12 14 Centre · 2Mahmood argued the savings arise because care workers no longer in care work would not settle at five years and then claim benefits; Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp called the changes "a humiliating capitulation" and says they will cost the state billions. 11 12 Centre · 1In the Commons, Labour MP Diane Abbott said Mahmood risked being in the position of the home secretary at the time of the Windrush scandal, asking how it could be fair that people who came legally have their residency rights "turned upside down"; Mahmood replied that the Windrush scandal arose because the country already owed obligations to those affected, which is different from workers on temporary visas, and said settlement is decided under the rules in force when someone applies. 15

Right · 1Other Labour MPs pressed for further changes: Stella Creasy said about 200,000 people earning under £50,000 outside the care and public sectors, such as scientists and technologists, now face ten years; former shadow chancellor John McDonnell warned the 30-year wait for small-boat arrivals risks a "generation of unsettled and insecure young people"; Rachael Maskell objected to retrospective changes; and Richard Burgon and Clive Lewis welcomed the care-worker change but said they would keep pushing. 14 Centre · 1Jeremy Corbyn asked in the Commons where the fairness lay in "prioritising very wealthy people and very high earners over much lower-paid care workers", and Liberal Democrat MPs Paul Kohler and Sarah Olney objected to retrospective changes and warned children could be left without citizenship. 16 Left · 1Unions and care bodies gave mixed reactions: Unison's Andrea Egan said she was glad Mahmood had "finally listened" but that the plans should be dropped; the Royal College of Nursing's Prof Nicola Ranger said the changes were fairer but "still not fair"; and Unite's Sharon Graham welcomed the U-turn while questioning why a "finance bro" could settle in three years while an NHS doctor waits five. 1

Centre · 1The Times of India reports that the retrospective change has caused "considerable anxiety" among Indian migrants who expected ILR after five years, and quotes Pranav Brahmabatt of INSA UK calling it "fundamentally unfair" to disadvantage people already living and working in the UK; it adds that student, graduate and youth mobility time will not count towards earned settlement. 17 Mixed · 2Tory leader Kemi Badenoch wrote in the Mail that Mahmood had been "humiliated" and that the principle of longer waits was one the Conservatives would have supported; Reform UK's Nigel Farage called it "the beginning of the capitulation", the Liberal Democrats' Max Wilkinson said the reforms were "unravelling", and Green MP Siân Berry described a "new obstacle course of hoops and barriers". 14 11 Centre · 1Mahmood told Today that legal immigration "has been too high" and that net migration is down 82%, after Burnham said it was "difficult to say" whether it was too high or too low; asylum minister Anna Turley agreed levels had been too high. 12

Mixed · 2The consultation drew 202,000 respondents, only 18 per cent of them British citizens according to GB News; in the Lords, shadow Home Office minister Lord Davies of Gower said 73% were current visa holders and questioned whether the responses were representative, while Mahmood told GB News it was "a genuine consultation". 18 15 Centre · 1The South China Morning Post reports that holders of the British National (Overseas) visa for Hongkongers are exempt from the income changes and the longer qualifying period, though they must meet the new minimum requirements on English and criminality; more than 187,000 people have been issued BN(O) visas since 2021. 19 Centre · 1Chris Mason writes that the Conservatives will call the change an "excruciating U-turn" and believe the plans could be successfully challenged in court if not enacted through primary legislation such as an amendment to the Immigration and Asylum Bill; a Whitehall source said the government "took the time to get this right" while Mason asks whether it buckled under pressure from its own side and a change of prime minister. 10

Left · 1Housing Secretary Angela Rayner called the prospect of care workers already in Britain waiting up to 15 years "un-British" in June, and energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh said in September the plans would have been "tough" for her refugee family. 4 Centre · 1The Standard adds that Prime Minister Andy Burnham said last week he strongly supported ILR being a "right to be earned" but stopped short of committing to all of Mahmood's reforms, and that Fahnbulleh had repeatedly refused to say she backed a longer qualifying period. 3 Centre · 1The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said skilled migrants and their adult dependants due to settle between 2026 and 2030 under current five-year rules would make a net lifetime contribution of about £115 billion, a counterpoint to the government estimate that letting overseas care workers and their dependants settle would cost taxpayers £10 billion; it welcomed reports of a compromise exempting care workers already in the UK (around 287,000 care workers and dependants expected to settle) and urged one for other workers already here. 20

Left · 1A letter dated 29 October to Mahmood and health secretary Yvette Cooper, signed by Labour MPs including Diane Abbott and Clive Lewis, Green MPs and groups such as Care England and the Society of Radiographers, calls the proposals "an iteration of Windrush era policies" and warns of worsening staff shortages in health and social care. 4 Right · 1GB News, citing The Sun, reports that government whips are sounding out Labour MPs to avoid a party split, that opposition is thought to far exceed the 100 MPs who signed a protest letter, and that a government source said it would "now be more surprising if we stick with the proposals". 5 Centre · 1Shadow home secretary Chris Philp wrote on X that Mahmood had been "forced to surrender to Angela Rayner and the open-borders Labour left", citing her own March estimate that letting low-wage care workers stay would cost taxpayers £10 billion; he said the Conservative plan is a ten-year route to ILR only for high-wage workers, with those already here on temporary work visas required to leave when they expire. 3

Centre · 1Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said Labour was "at war with itself" and Mahmood was "losing a fight to the far left of her own party", and that Reform would "scrap ILR in its entirety and indeed rescind existing awards". 20 Right · 1In a statement to Breitbart London, Farage said Reform would review every citizenship granted to people who go through ILR under the new scheme and revoke those judged a net negative for the British economy; Migration Watch UK's chairman Alp Mehmet called the reaction "weak and pusillanimous". 21 Centre · 1On the BBC, former Home Office minister Mike Tapp urged exemption for those genuinely working in health and social care, Reform UK's Zia Yusuf said Mahmood had been "overruled" by Burnham, and the Migration Observatory's Dr Ben Brindle said the policy "probably won't have too much impact" on people's decision to come to the UK. 9

Right · 1The Daily Mail says Mahmood warned in March that diluting the plans would be "an affront to the idea of fairness within our society" and would put "further strain on public services like housing and healthcare"; it quotes Rayner as saying she has "every confidence" Mahmood will produce a system fair to taxpayers and to those working in public services, and dates Rayner's "un-British" remark to March, when she was a backbencher. 6 Right · 1GB News also reports Home Office data showing 934 people crossed the Channel on 12 boats over Thursday and Friday (29–30 October), and says it has footage of more attempts on Saturday morning. 5 Left · 1Al Jazeera adds that the government says closer UK-France law enforcement cooperation has cut Channel crossings this year by more than 40 percent compared with 2025. 8

Left · 1Launching the consultation last year, Mahmood said settling permanently "is therefore not a right but a privilege – and one that must be earned". 4 Right · 1Reuters, carried by the Straits Times, says the reforms aim to balance voter demands for lower immigration against business warnings that tough rules could deter needed workers; it reports net migration almost halved to 171,000 last year from 331,000, and that junior business minister Chris McDonald told Sky News immigration had become unsustainable under the previous Conservative-led government. 7