Met Office says El Niño raises odds of sudden stratospheric warming and cold spells in UK winter
UK outlets report the Met Office's explanation that a record El Niño can weaken the polar vortex and make sudden stratospheric warming, and so cold spells late in winter, more likely. The Met Office frames it as a shift in the odds, not a certainty.
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The story, neutrally told
Left · 1The Met Office says this year's El Niño, described as record-breaking and expected to be the strongest ever, could raise the chance of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over the UK in the coming months. Daily MirrorL “the Met Office says this year’s record-breaking El Nino could mean we see SSW again over the coming months” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Mixed · 2A Met Office spokesperson said that in the latter part of winter, following an El Niño peak, the stratospheric polar vortex can weaken, increasing the chance of SSW events and the potential for cold weather. Evening StandardN “the stratospheric Polar Vortex can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ Daily MirrorL “the stratospheric Polar Vortex can become weaker” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Mixed · 2SSW is a rapid warming, by up to about 50C in a couple of days, in the stratosphere 10km to 50km above the surface. It can send cold air downward, affect the jet stream and create a 'blocking pattern' that holds cold weather in place. Daily MirrorL “SSW refers to a rapid warming (up to about 50C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10km and 50km above the earth’s surface.” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Evening StandardN “can cause cold air to rush downwards, impacting the jet stream and potentially creating a “blocking pattern”” Read at Evening Standard ↗
Left · 1The Mirror says SSW lay behind the 2018 'Beast from the East', which brought up to 22 inches of snow and temperatures as low as -14C, and also behind cold winters in 2009-10 and 2013. It quotes the Met Office as saying a cold snap 'follows more often than not' after SSW, though not always. Daily MirrorL “The historic weather system brought 22 inches of snow to some parts of the country in February and March of that year, with temperatures plunging as low as -14C.”“the Met Office says a cold snap “follows more often than not”” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Left · 1The Met Office says that over northern Europe, including the UK, SSW tends to bring a long spell of dry, cold weather, while southern Europe is milder, wetter and windier. Daily MirrorL “northern Europe, including the UK, is likely to get a long spell of dry, cold weather, whereas southern Europe will tend to be more mild, wet and windy.” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Centre · 1The Evening Standard cites a NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory paper concluding that El Niño 'tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter'. Evening StandardN “El Niño "tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter"” Read at Evening Standard ↗
Centre · 1Met Office chief forecaster Dr Will Lang called it a 'subtle shift in the odds' rather than a certainty, and said the winter starts with heightened potential for wet, stormy weather and flooding. Evening StandardN “it was a “subtle shift in the odds” that El Niño would cause havoc in the coming weeks, rather than a certainty.”“heightened potential for potentially stormy conditions, and that leads through to a heightened potential for flooding.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ Centre · 1Climate spokesman Grahame Madge said the El Niño is still developing and has already surpassed the 2015/16 event in magnitude. He said there is a known tendency towards a stormier start to autumn and winter, and towards colder spells at the end of winter. Evening StandardN “already it has surpassed the magnitude of previous events including the one in 2015/16.”“there is a trend towards colder spells at the end of winter.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ Centre · 1The Standard says the El Niño follows a record-setting dry, hot summer, calls it a 'Godzilla' event set to 'hit the capital', and says the UK is likely to face very windy and snowy conditions. Evening StandardN “An unprecedented “Godzilla” El Niño event is set to hit the capital this winter, on the back of a record setting dry and hot summer.”“That would make the UK likely to face extremely windy and snowy conditions over the coming months.” Read at Evening Standard ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Leads with the Beast from the East 2018 precedent and presents the Met Office view as a warning of possible severe snow and cold.
- Emphasis
- The SSW mechanism, 2018 snowfall and temperature figures, and earlier cold winters.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not carry the Met Office forecaster's caution that this is a modest shift in odds, or the wet and stormy outlook.
- Charged language
- “Beast from the East”“record-breaking”
- For example
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“Brits could face severe snow and cold in the coming months as a record-breaking El Nino may cause Sudden Stratospheric Warming” — Daily Mirror
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Leads with a London-focused 'Godzilla' El Niño and a Met Office update, mixing dramatic language with forecaster caveats.
- Emphasis
- The NOAA research, the Met Office's stormy and flooding outlook, and Will Lang's 'subtle shift in the odds'.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention the 2018 Beast from the East snowfall figures or earlier cold winters.
- Charged language
- “Godzilla”“could cause chaos”“hit the capital”
- For example
-
“An unprecedented “Godzilla” El Niño event is set to hit the capital” — Evening Standard
“The Met Office has issued an update on the polar vortex that could cause chaos in London and across the UK this winter.” — Evening Standard
Right0 outlets
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- The Met Office says a peak in El Niño can weaken the stratospheric polar vortex later in winter, raising the chance of sudden stratospheric warming and cold weather.
- This year's El Niño is described as record-setting or unprecedented.
- SSW can disrupt the jet stream and create a blocking pattern that holds cold weather in place.
Where accounts differ
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How likely a severe cold or snowy winter is
- Left
- The Mirror says the UK 'could soon face' a Beast from the East-type event, while noting SSW doesn't always bring such outcomes.
- Centre
- The Standard says the UK is 'likely' to face extremely windy and snowy conditions, but quotes Met Office forecaster Will Lang calling it only a 'subtle shift in the odds'.
Met Office organisation
Says El Niño raises the chance of a weakened polar vortex and SSW late in winter, with cold weather following more often than not. Its forecaster stresses this is a subtle shift in the odds, not a certainty.
“it was a “subtle shift in the odds”” — Evening Standard
“a cold snap “follows more often than not”” — Daily Mirror
El Niño topic
Described as a warming of Pacific sea surface temperatures, this year's event as record-setting and still developing, already stronger than 2015/16.
“already it has surpassed the magnitude of previous events including the one in 2015/16.” — Evening Standard
“El Nino describes the warming of sea surface temperatures” — Daily Mirror
Left1 article
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UK faces ‘Beast from the East’ snow system after Met Office polar vortex verdict
Alarmist Explainer built around the Beast from the East precedent, suggesting a repeat is possible.
Centre1 article
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Met Office issues polar vortex update amid London El Nino fears
Alarmist London-centred warning of a 'Godzilla' El Niño and possible chaos, with Met Office caveats included.
Right0 articles
No coverage yet.
- 1 Oct 12:34 First Daily MirrorL UK faces ‘Beast from the East’ snow system after Met Office polar vortex verdict
- 2 Oct 20:56 +32h 21m Evening StandardN Met Office issues polar vortex update amid London El Nino fears
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.