Minnesota Senate race tightens as fraud scandal, ICE operation and Omar probe shape campaign

Mixed · 2The Cook Political Report has moved the Minnesota Senate race from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic after recent polls showed a tight contest between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a retired broadcaster. 1 2 Right · 1A KSTP/Survey USA poll released this week put Flanagan at 45 percent and Tafoya at 42 percent, according to Hot Air. 2 Centre · 1The two are running to succeed Democratic Senator Tina Smith, who is retiring, and Tafoya outraised Flanagan in the third quarter, $4.3 million to $3.8 million, which Newsweek says makes Minnesota the only competitive Senate race where a Republican did so. 1

Centre · 1Newsweek reports that the fraud scandal has become a flash point, centred on the nonprofit Feeding Our Future, which was implicated in a $250 million COVID-era scheme over child nutrition programmes; the Justice Department probe, begun under the Biden administration, has led to dozens of indictments, including members of Minnesota's Somali community. 1 Centre · 1Republicans accuse Governor Tim Walz of an inadequate response; his office told Newsweek he has "worked for years to crack down on fraud" and asked the Legislature for more authority. Tafoya says the only consequence has been Walz stepping out of a third-term race, while Flanagan says she is "incredibly angry" about the fraud and has backed an independent Office of Inspector General and harsher penalties. 1 Centre · 1Political scientists quoted by Newsweek say the fraud issue has hurt Flanagan because of her closeness to Walz, though one noted it is unclear whether voters will treat the race as a referendum on Trump or on Walz. 1

Right · 1Hot Air attributes Democratic weakness to "the looting of the state and federal treasury, primarily by Somalis", and says Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, exposed a scheme in which mothers were paid up to $1,500 to falsely claim autism in their children; it says the state autism programme grew from $6 million to over $443 million last year. 2 Centre · 1On immigration, Newsweek says Democrats are emphasising the issue after Minnesota became the centre of stepped-up federal enforcement, during which two US citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot by federal immigration officers in January; an expert said Operation Metro Surge may have energised Democrats and helped Flanagan beat Rep. Angie Craig in the primary. 1 Centre · 1Earlier in October, the Washington-area home of Rep. Ilhan Omar was raided in a federal immigration probe; the New York Times, cited by Newsweek, reported a warrant listing possible false statements, immigration paperwork fraud and conspiracy, which Newsweek has not reviewed. Omar called it an attempt to "weaponize federal law enforcement"; one expert thinks it may mobilise Democrats, another doubts it affects the Senate race, and Tafoya says it does not affect her race much. 1

Mixed · 2Minnesota last voted for a Republican for president in 1972 and last elected a Republican senator in 2002, although recent presidential margins have been narrow; Kamala Harris won by about four points in 2024. 1 2