Study projects new dementia cases to more than double to 24.7 million a year by 2050

Mixed · 2A study published in JAMA Neurology on Monday estimates that about 11.4 million people developed dementia worldwide in 2023 and that annual new cases will more than double to 24.7 million by 2050. 1 2 Mixed · 2The research came from the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA) at the University of NSW. It drew on population-based studies covering 38,418 people in 18 countries and territories; the New York Post says 22 studies were analysed. 1 2 Mixed · 2The study measured incidence, the rate at which new cases arise each year, rather than prevalence, the total number of people living with dementia. It has been described as one of the most comprehensive looks at dementia incidence. 2 1

Mixed · 2Incidence was higher in women and in people living in low- and middle-income countries. The New York Post reports 10.6 cases per 1,000 people for women against 8.6 for men, and 64% more new cases in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income ones. 2 1 Left · 1Lead author Dr Ashleigh Vella said understanding these differences is critical for developing prevention, diagnosis and care strategies that respond to the populations facing the greatest future risk. 1 Left · 1Professor Henry Brodaty, co-director of CHeBA, said women historically had less access to education and fewer career opportunities, which could lead to poorer cognitive resilience. He added that higher rates of depression, anxiety and obesity among women might contribute, and that the role of menopause needs more research, as it is not established and results on hormone replacement therapy conflict. 1

Right · 1Dr Liron Sinvani of the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging, who was not named as a study author, called the numbers "staggering" and said the cause of higher risk in women could be "something biological, social or environmental". Sinvani attributed the overall rise to ageing populations, noting about 1 in 9 people have dementia after 65 and almost 1 in 3 after 85. 2 Left · 1Monash University researcher Matthew Pase called the research ambitious and the figures "scary", saying rates projected for low-income countries are alarming because those countries are less equipped to cope, and that solutions must be scalable. 1 Mixed · 2Both outlets point to prevention. They cite a 2024 finding that 14 modifiable risk factors account for nearly half of dementia cases. The New York Post adds that cases have declined in high-income countries over recent decades, which it links to better cardiovascular health and more physical activity. 1 2

Mixed · 2The New York Post says earlier studies predicted a doubling of cases by 2060 and that the date has moved up by a decade. ABC adds that two dementia drug therapies approved in Australia are costly and not subsidised under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, so Pase said prevention remains key. 2 1