Skip to content
Bramble

Economy

Brazilian assets surge after Flavio Bolsonaro's first-round lead; Nasdaq hits record

Brazil's Bovespa jumped 7.7% to a record close and the real gained about 4% after Flavio Bolsonaro beat polling expectations in the 4 October first round. On Wall Street the Nasdaq also closed at a record.

2 outlets · 0L · 1C · 1R First reported Account updated
Image: CNA
Image: The Straits Times

1 / 2

The story, neutrally told

Right · 1Brazil's Bovespa index closed at a record 206,911.89 points on 5 October, up 7.7% in its largest one-day gain since 24 March 2020, after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro finished better than expected in the first round of the 4 October presidential election. Mixed · 2Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won 47% of the vote against about 45% for incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October; polls had forecast Lula leading the first round by around three points. Mixed · 2A CNA-carried market column put Brazilian stocks up 8%, the biggest rise this century outside the global financial crisis and the pandemic, and the real up 4%, its biggest gain in four years. The Straits Times, running Reuters copy, put the real's gain at 4.1%, to around 5 per dollar.

Right · 1Among individual stocks, Magazine Luiza, Cosan and exchange operator B3 each jumped more than 20%, Bradesco rose over 13% and Petrobras just over 8%. US-listed Brazilian shares also soared, including XP up 33% and Nu Holdings up 13%. Right · 1Credit default swaps on Brazilian government debt fell 20 basis points, the 2056 bond rose 1.4 cents to 93.5 cents on the dollar, and J.P. Morgan upgraded Brazilian equities to "overweight". Right · 1Investors were also reacting to gains for Bolsonaro's allies in Congress: his Liberal Party is reported to have raised its Senate seats from 15 to 28 and to be projected at 121 of 513 lower-house seats, up from 98. Analysts quoted by Reuters said a friendlier legislature would make it easier to pass tighter spending, privatisations and tax cuts, though one noted it remains to be seen whether Bolsonaro would prove more fiscally responsible than Lula.

Right · 1Bolsonaro said "Brazil wants change" and heralded the "end of the era of (Lula's) Workers' Party"; US President Donald Trump called the first-place finish a "very, very big victory" and predicted a close runoff. Mixed · 2Reuters reported that Lula is considering naming Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as finance minister if re-elected, to bolster fiscal credibility and win centrist voters; the CNA column said online betting markets implied an 83% chance of a Bolsonaro win in the runoff. Right · 1The Straits Times copy recalled that Jair Bolsonaro also beat expectations in the 2022 first round but lost the runoff to Lula, was later convicted of trying to carry out a coup, and is serving a sentence of about 27 years under house arrest.

Centre · 1In US markets, the Nasdaq rose 1% to a new high on earnings optimism and lower oil prices, despite rising bond yields; the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, Nvidia hit a record with its market cap nearing $6 trillion, US 10- and 30-year yields had their highest closes in over two decades, and the dollar index reached an 18-month high.

Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.

Left0 outlets

No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.

Centre1 outlet

Framing
A market-wrapper column leading with the Nasdaq record and treating Brazil as the day's biggest mover, set among bond yields, the dollar and European political risk.
Emphasis
Cross-asset moves, Nasdaq and Nvidia records, betting-market odds of an 83% Bolsonaro win.
Leaves out or plays down
Gives no detail on the vote shares, congressional results or analyst forecasts for Brazil.
Charged language
“political earthquake”“sizzling rally”
For example
“That rumbling you feel beneath your feet is the first tremors of what could be a political earthquake in Brazil.” — CNA

Right1 outlet

Framing
Reuters copy focused on Brazil: the market rally as a verdict on Bolsonaro, and how right-wing gains in Congress would give room for fiscal reforms.
Emphasis
Vote shares, Congress seat gains, stock-level moves, analyst and bank forecasts, Trump's reaction.
Leaves out or plays down
Does not cover the Nasdaq or US market moves.
Charged language
“cheered on”“celebration”
For example
“Investors cheered on Oct 5 as Bolsonaro’s strong showing was matched by gains for his allies in Congress.” — The Straits Times