NI older people forecast to outnumber children by 2027, commissioner warns
A report by Northern Ireland's Commissioner for Older People, Siobhan Casey, says people aged 65 and over will outnumber children by mid-2027. She says Stormont has not planned for this.
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The story, neutrally told
Centre · 2Northern Ireland's Commissioner for Older People, Siobhan Casey, has published a report, Ready Or Not: The Ageing Population. It says people aged 65 and over will outnumber children in Northern Ireland by next year. Evening StandardN “The report, Ready Or Not: The Ageing Population, said the number of people aged 65 and over will exceed the number of children aged up to 15 by mid-2027.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ BBC NewsN “The report draws on official population projections which suggest that next year the number of people aged over 65 will overtake the number of children.” Read at BBC News ↗ Centre · 1The number of people aged 65 and over is forecast to rise by 44.7%, from 349,200 in 2024 to 505,200 by 2049. The population aged 85 and over is expected to more than double over the same period. Evening StandardN “rising from 349,200 in 2024 to 505,200 by 2049.”“The population aged 85 and over is expected to more than double over the same period.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ Centre · 1The BBC reports that Northern Ireland's total population is projected to fall slightly over the next 25 years. BBC NewsN “Northern Ireland's population as a whole is projected to fall slightly over the next 25 years” Read at BBC News ↗
Centre · 1The report identifies pressures on health and social care, rising housing demand, rising poverty among older people, social isolation and digital exclusion. It says Northern Ireland is projected to see the largest rise in dementia prevalence of any UK region. It also says more than 50,000 households are on social housing waiting lists, foodbank use among over-65s has risen 91% since 2019/20, and residential and nursing beds per 100 people aged 65 and over have fallen 23% in 15 years. Evening StandardN “largest increase in dementia prevalence of any UK region”“foodbank use among those aged over 65 has increased 91% since 2019/20.”“has reduced 23% in the past 15 years.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ Centre · 1The BBC sets out the economic dependency ratio. In 2024 there were 586 dependants for every 1,000 people of working age, projected to reach 614 per 1,000 by mid-2049. The child ratio falls from 316 to 248, while the pensioner ratio rises from 269 to 366, a near 36% jump. BBC NewsN “In 2024, for every 1,000 people of working age in Northern Ireland there were 586 dependants.”“for pensioners it rises from 269 to 366 per 1,000 - a near 36% jump in the ratio of pensioners to workers.” Read at BBC News ↗ Centre · 1The BBC adds that the resulting strain on the tax base needed to fund healthcare and pensions is beyond Stormont's competence and would have to be tackled by national government. BBC NewsN “That is a challenge beyond Stormont's competence and will have to be tackled at a national government level.” Read at BBC News ↗
Centre · 2Casey called the forecast a "wake-up call for government". She said Northern Ireland "has yet to develop the coordinated and long-term approach needed", and that Stormont leaders continue to "plan for a population from a previous era". Evening StandardN “This should be a wake-up call for government.” Read at Evening Standard ↗ BBC NewsN “plan for a population from a previous era” Read at BBC News ↗ Centre · 2She described the finalised Programme for Government as containing one reference to an "ageing population", which she called "hugely disappointing". She wants older people and the ageing demographic explicitly included in the next Programme for Government, with clear commitments on services and infrastructure. BBC NewsN “the finalised Pro-gramme for Government document contains one reference to an 'ageing population', which was hugely disappointing.” Read at BBC News ↗ Evening StandardN “must therefore be explicitly included in the next Programme for Government” Read at Evening Standard ↗ Centre · 1Casey said longer lives are one of society's greatest achievements and that the issue is not about prioritising one generation over another. Evening StandardN “Longer lives are one of society's greatest achievements and should be celebrated.”“This isn’t about prioritising one generation over another” Read at Evening Standard ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre2 outlets
- Framing
- Both outlets report the commissioner's report and warning. The Evening Standard leads on the 'wake-up call' and the report's statistics. The BBC leads on Stormont 'failing to plan' and adds economic context.
- Emphasis
- The Standard stresses service pressures such as dementia, housing, foodbanks and care beds. The BBC stresses planning failures, the dependency ratio and the limits of Stormont's powers.
- Leaves out or plays down
- The Standard does not mention the projected fall in total population or the dependency ratio. The BBC does not give the housing, foodbank or care-bed figures. Neither quotes a government or ministerial response.
- Charged language
- “wake-up call”“failing to plan”“hugely disappointing”
- For example
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“This should be a wake-up call for government.” — Evening Standard
“Northern Ireland's leaders have not absorbed the implications of a rapidly ageing society” — BBC News
Right0 outlets
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- Over-65s in Northern Ireland are projected to outnumber children by 2027.
- The 65+ population is projected to grow by about 45% by 2049.
- Commissioner Siobhan Casey says Northern Ireland lacks a coordinated long-term approach to ageing.
Siobhan Casey person
Casey says the ageing population needs a strategic, cross-government approach. She says planning is currently piecemeal and wants older people written into the next Programme for Government.
“Population ageing needs to be recognised as a strategic, cross-government issue” — Evening Standard
“The ageing population is here, whether we are ready for it or not.” — BBC News
Stormont organisation
Stormont is criticised by the commissioner for not planning enough. Casey acknowledges that officials and politicians recognise the change and are well-intentioned. No Stormont response is reported.
“At some level, government officials and elected representatives acknowledge that our society is changing,” — BBC News
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre2 articles
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Forecast that older people will outnumber children next year is ‘wake-up call’
Neutral Reports the commissioner's report and warning, with detailed statistics on service pressures and extended quotes.
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Stormont 'failing to plan' for ageing population
Neutral Leads on the planning-failure criticism of Stormont, with added context on the dependency ratio and the limits of Stormont's powers.
Right0 articles
No coverage yet.
- 12 Oct 00:01 First Evening StandardN Forecast that older people will outnumber children next year is ‘wake-up call’
- 12 Oct 06:33 +6h 32m BBC NewsN Stormont 'failing to plan' for ageing population
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.