NYT/Siena polls show Democrats gaining in five Republican-held states, including Texas and Alaska
New York Times/Siena polls released Saturday 3 October show Democrats improving in several Republican-held states, with Democrats at 50% or more in Texas and Alaska Senate races and Gov. Greg Abbott trailing in Texas, according to Raw Story.
Updated (version 2). Rewritten with the latest reporting.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2New York Times/Siena College polls released on Saturday 3 October, a month before the 3 November midterms, showed Democratic candidates gaining in five Republican-held states. Raw StoryL “A new New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats gaining across five red states since June.” Read at Raw Story ↗ New York PostR “according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday” Read at New York Post ↗ Right · 1In the Texas Senate race, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 45%, according to the New York Post; it said a Marist College poll the week before also had Talarico ahead by six points. New York PostR “Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 51% to 45%”“A Marist College poll last week also put Talarico ahead by six points.” Read at New York Post ↗ Mixed · 2In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43%; Raw Story said Sullivan had led by 2 points in June. New York PostR “Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 50% to 43%” Read at New York Post ↗ Raw StoryL “Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan led by 2 in June, and now Democrat Mary Peltola leads by 7” Read at Raw Story ↗
Left · 1Raw Story, citing a chart posted by analyst Adam Carlson, reported that in the Texas governor's race Republican Gov. Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 6 points in June and now trails by 4, a 10-point swing. Raw StoryL “In June, Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 6 points. Now Hinojosa is up by 4, a 10-point swing toward Democrats.” Read at Raw Story ↗ Mixed · 2In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown led Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 46%, reversing a 3-point deficit from June, according to the Post's figures and Raw Story's June comparison. New York PostR “former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 46%” Read at New York Post ↗ Raw StoryL “Democrat Sherrod Brown erased a 3-point deficit against Sen. Jon Husted and now leads by 3.” Read at Raw Story ↗ Left · 1Raw Story also reported that Democrat Rob Sand's lead in the Iowa governor's race grew from 2 to 11 points. Raw StoryL “In Iowa's governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand went from a 2-point lead to an 11-point lead.” Read at Raw Story ↗
Mixed · 2Republicans held up better elsewhere. Rep. Ashley Hinson led Democrat Josh Turek by one point in the Iowa Senate race (48% to 47%, per the Post). Sen. Roger Marshall was tied 45% to 45% with Democrat Adam Hamilton in Kansas, per the Post. Raw Story added that Ty Masterson led the Kansas governor's race by 4 and Rep. Nick Begich led his Alaska race by 6. New York PostR “Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) edges Democrat Josh Turk 48-47”“Sen. Roger Marshall was in a tie, 45-45, with Democrat Adam Hamilton.” Read at New York Post ↗ Raw StoryL “In Kansas, Republican Ty Masterson leads the governor's race by 4. Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) also leads his race by 6.” Read at Raw Story ↗ Right · 1The Post said the Texas poll found President Trump's approval at 40% against 57% disapproval, and that the Texas Senate result came days after a recording surfaced of Paxton telling donors and lobbyists that "everybody's numbers dropped" after the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas. New York PostR “President Trump’s approval rating in the state stands at 40%, compared with 57% who disapprove.”““everybody’s numbers dropped”” Read at New York Post ↗ Right · 1Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control. The Post reported that the Senate Leadership Fund moved to pull $10 million out of the North Carolina race and redirect it to Kansas; in North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley. It also noted other contests in Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan. New York PostR “Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.”“Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley” Read at New York Post ↗
Left · 1Commentators quoted by Raw Story called the shifts significant: podcast host Molly Jong-Fast wrote "This is wild," and Focus America founder Daniele Angrisani said an Abbott loss would be "a full-blown devastating tsunami for the Republicans." Raw StoryL “"This is wild," writer and podcast host Molly Jong-Fast wrote while sharing the chart.”“But a full-blown devastating tsunami for the Republicans.” Read at Raw Story ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Treats the polls as a dramatic swing against Republicans, led by Abbott's slide in the Texas governor's race, mostly through social-media reaction.
- Emphasis
- Change since June, Abbott trailing, enthusiastic commentator quotes.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not give Senate-control arithmetic or the Texas Senate poll; mentions Republican holds only briefly at the end.
- Charged language
- “MAGA governor”“full-blown devastating tsunami”“Sheesh”
Centre0 outlets
No centre outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- A straight Senate-race news report on the battle for control, giving poll numbers, margins of error, Trump's approval, and Republican and White House responses.
- Emphasis
- Democrats hitting 50% in Texas and Alaska, Senate majority math, Republican spending shifts, Paxton's recorded remarks.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not cover the Texas or Iowa governor's races or the June-to-October swing figures.
- Charged language
- “conman”
- For example
-
“Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 51% to 45%” — New York Post
“Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate” — New York Post
What every side reports
- NYT/Siena polls released 3 October show Democrats ahead or competitive in several Republican-held races.
- Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska by 7 points.
- Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio by 3 points.
- Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek by 1 point in the Iowa Senate race.
Where accounts differ
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Which results to emphasise
- Left
- Raw Story stresses the swing since June, especially Abbott's fall to a 4-point deficit in Texas, and quotes commentators predicting a Republican 'tsunami'.
- Right
- The Post stresses Democrats reaching 50% in Texas and Alaska Senate races and the fight for Senate control, with Republican spending moves and Trump's weak Texas approval.
Greg Abbott person
Greg Abbott is described as trailing Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points; no response from Abbott is reported.
“Republican Gov. Greg Abbott now trails his Democratic challenger.” — Raw Story
Left2 articles
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'Sheesh': MAGA governor in red state faces 'full-blown devastating tsunami' as polls shift
Celebratory Frames the polls as a looming Republican collapse, relying on chart posts and enthusiastic quotes.
-
Centre0 articles
No coverage yet.
Right1 article
-
Democrats hit 50% or more in Texas, Alaska polls as Senate battle heats up
Neutral Reports Senate poll numbers and the stakes for Republican control, including GOP setbacks and party spending moves.
- 3 Oct 19:05 First Raw StoryL 'Sheesh': MAGA governor in red state faces 'full-blown devastating tsunami' as polls shift
- 3 Oct 22:49 +3h 45m New York PostR Democrats hit 50% or more in Texas, Alaska polls as Senate battle heats up
- 4 Oct 00:14 +5h 9m Raw StoryL MAGA governor's grim new numbers threaten ‘monumental blow’ to GOP: activist
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.