Oil edges lower in Asian trade, Brent holds above $105 on Middle East supply risks

Centre · 1Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Friday 16 October 2026, with Brent crude staying above $105 a barrel as markets weighed threats to Middle Eastern supplies against plans to release more emergency reserves. 1 Centre · 1Gulf News, citing OilPrice.com data from about 10:40am Tokyo time, put Brent at $105.50, down 45 cents or 0.42%, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $97.44, down 53 cents or 0.54%. It put Murban crude at $110, down 97 cents. 1 Centre · 1Later in the day, The National reported Brent down 0.77% at $105.10 and WTI down nearly 1% at $97.04, at 12.59pm UAE time. 2

Centre · 1For the week, The National said Brent was on pace to add 0.32%, while WTI was on track to rise by more than 5.6%. 2 Centre · 1Thursday's session was mixed. According to CNBC, as cited by Gulf News, WTI futures for November delivery rose $2.88, about 3%, to settle at $97.97, while Brent futures for December delivery slipped 14 cents to $105.92. 1 Centre · 2Supply concerns centre on attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and the security of oil shipments from the Gulf and the Black Sea. The National describes the war in Iran, now in its eighth month, as continuing to choke energy supplies. 1 2

Centre · 1Gulf producers have pushed tanker transfers as far as India's coast and cut prices to keep crude flowing to Asia as the makeshift export network around Hormuz strains under congestion and attack. Vortexa data showed ship-to-ship transfers in India's Gulf of Kutch reached 82 cargoes in September, about 680,000 barrels a day. 2 Centre · 1On the supply side, Gulf News reported, citing Bloomberg, that International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries pledged to complete the release of 100 million barrels still outstanding from an emergency intervention announced in March. The same report put Dated Brent, the benchmark for physical cargoes, near $130 a barrel. 1 Centre · 1The National reported that the IEA said its March pledge will exceed its target and that it will speed up the remaining release. It also said Middle East exports have recovered to pre-crisis levels and global storage is not tight, but warned the diesel shortage could last into the second half of 2027. 2

Centre · 1Earlier in October, G7 leaders pledged to accelerate the IEA's coordinated release by rolling out 100 million barrels of diesel and other reserves. The National also reported that the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Russia to allow millions of barrels of diesel onto global markets. 2 Centre · 1Norbert Rucker of Julius Baer said current price levels "still seem to be somewhat lofty compared to market realities" and that the Iran war has mainly erased the surplus built in 2025 rather than pushing the market into deficit. 2 Centre · 1Trump's declared Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" has raised questions over its validity, because Moscow did not confirm it and Russian strikes hit Ukrainian power plants within hours of the announcement. 2

Centre · 1A Gulf News regional roundup that opens with the oil report also covers a diplomatic dispute: Iran denies British claims that it was behind a suspected plot near RAF Fairford, calling it a "clumsy false flag operation". Tehran has summoned the British ambassador and demanded evidence. 3