Parti Québécois wins Quebec election, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon set to be premier

Mixed · 2The Parti Québécois (PQ) won Quebec's provincial election on Monday 5 October, making leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon the incoming premier, according to projections by Canadian media. 1 2 Centre · 3The National Post, writing early on Tuesday, said it was not yet known whether the result was a majority or a minority. The BBC, The Hindu and CNA reported the PQ fell short of a majority, while Al Jazeera said it was not yet clear whether the party had reached the 64 seats needed in the 127-seat National Assembly. 1 3 4 Mixed · 2It is the PQ's first time in power since 2014. The party was nearly wiped off the electoral map in 2022, when it elected only three members of the National Assembly. Its caucus later grew to seven through byelections. 1 2

Centre · 1Outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) conceded her own race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time. She said she would work with St-Pierre Plamondon on the transition. The Quebec Liberal Party won the second-most seats, and the Quebec Conservative Party gained seats. 1 Mixed · 2The PQ has pledged an independence referendum. St-Pierre Plamondon announced on 18 August that it would be held only after US President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029. The National Post says this was not a new promise, since the PQ already planned a referendum near the end of a first mandate. It says the announcement was meant to blunt attacks that the PQ would destabilise Quebec during the trade war. The BBC says polls indicate only 30% of Quebecers back independence, and that a vote would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030. Quebec held earlier referendums in 1980 and 1995. 2 1 Mixed · 2The National Post reports that the PQ had led the polls almost continuously for nearly three years. It says the party's strategists feared a CAQ rise fuelled by the Canada–US trade war, after trade talks collapsed and Trump imposed further tariffs that Canada answered with counter-tariffs. Those strategists said the CAQ gained only modestly. Liberal leader Charles Milliard was hurt by perceived ambiguity on French language and religious signs, and Fréchette struggled to say whether she was a federalist or sovereigntist, settling on "autonomist". La Presse reported that former premier François Legault joked in a private group chat, "I am not Christine Fréchette". The BBC attributes the result partly to public fatigue with the CAQ after eight years in office. 2 1

Left · 2The Hindu reported, citing partial results, that the separatists won only about 30% of the vote and that vote-splitting among the federalist parties tipped the result in the PQ's favour. Al Jazeera quoted McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland as saying the win reflects Quebec's multiparty system rather than a surge in secessionist sentiment. 5 4 Mixed · 2CNA reported that the Liberals and Conservatives, the two largest opposition parties, both said they would never back an independence referendum, so a minority PQ government will struggle to advance its separatist agenda. Al Jazeera noted that a minority government needs opposition support to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes. 3 4 Right · 1The National Post also reports that PQ officials resented Prime Minister Mark Carney appearing alongside Fréchette at major announcements. PQ communications director Lucas Medernach said, "Mark Carney had chosen his winner", and Carney's team denied this. 2

Centre · 1The BBC says the result could test Carney, with likely confrontations over immigration and the monarchy. St-Pierre Plamondon vowed to fight immigration increases mandated by Ottawa. He also pledged to "abolish the monarchy in Quebec" by defunding the lieutenant-governor's office and redirecting the money to social services such as tackling homelessness. The BBC says this is likely to face significant legal challenges, and that St-Pierre Plamondon says he is ready for a legal battle. 1 Centre · 1Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon late on Monday and said he looked forward to working with the party on tariff-hit businesses and workers, jobs, homelessness and housing. The BBC notes that Alberta is due to hold its own separation vote later this month, so Carney may face two unity questions at once. It also says Quebec is among the provinces hardest hit by the new US tariffs, which Oxford Economics projects will cost the province C$2bn. 1 Mixed · 2AFP reporting, carried by CNA and The Hindu, said Carney is popular in Quebec and the result was not seen as a repudiation of his stance towards Trump. It tied the PQ's rise to frustration over affordability and a desire to protect the French language. At the victory party in Montreal, St-Pierre Plamondon, 49, said francophones' struggle "will find meaning when (francophones) obtain their own country", while some voters, such as first-time voter Alexia Gomez, said independence would leave Quebec vulnerable. 3 5

Mixed · 2CNA and The Hindu said the monarchy plan appears far more popular than independence: in a 2025 Léger poll, 87% of Quebecers said they felt no attachment to the monarchy and 31% viewed King Charles favourably. St-Pierre Plamondon called the lieutenant governor's office a "masquerade that wastes money". The 1995 referendum was lost by independence supporters, with 50.58% voting to stay in Canada. 5 3