Philippines hosts ASEAN energy ministers in Manila as Middle East war strains fuel supplies

Centre · 1The Philippines is hosting the 44th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting and associated meetings in Manila on Oct. 5-9, according to the Philippine Information Agency. 1 Centre · 1Senior energy officials hold preparatory meetings on Monday and Tuesday, and ASEAN energy ministers and counterparts from partner countries meet on Oct. 7-8. 1 Mixed · 2The meeting takes place as disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the US-Israeli war against Iran put pressure on energy supplies and prices. 1 2

Centre · 1Philippine Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said "Energy security is a shared challenge", warning that disruptions could affect fuel availability, industries and households; Manila will push for stronger petroleum supply preparedness, regional electricity connectivity, diversified energy sources and greater energy efficiency. 1 Right · 1According to Reuters, ASEAN imports more than half of the crude for its refineries from the Middle East, benchmark prices are around $100 a barrel, and Chinese refiners have suspended oil product exports for October. 2 Right · 1Ministers are expected to review fuel-security measures launched after emergency talks earlier this year, including putting coordinated emergency responses under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA) into effect; the ASEAN Power Grid and renewable-energy deployment are also on the agenda. 2

Right · 1Philippine Energy Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella told Reuters the crisis brought "a sharper focus on resiliency", moving energy security from a technical issue to a priority for ministers and leaders. 2 Right · 1Higher prices are hitting households and transport workers: a Manila jeepney driver, Antonio Bandin, said his daily fuel bill has more than doubled to about 2,400 pesos ($38) after he joined a protest last week over fuel prices. 2 Right · 1The ASEAN Center for Energy warned that a severe disruption to Middle East supplies could put oil volumes equal to nearly 28 percent of ASEAN's final oil consumption at risk. 2

Right · 1Alloysius Joko Purwanto of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia said insufficient storage capacity and inventories remain obstacles to implementing APSA. Garin has said the Philippines, which remains under a national energy emergency, is exploring regional stockpiling arrangements and could host storage projects, but analysts cautioned these are unlikely to affect the present crisis. 2 Right · 1Christopher Len of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said "A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy" and urged using the shock to reduce exposure, not only cushion it. 2 Right · 1The International Energy Agency estimates Southeast Asia's energy import bill could rise from more than $80 billion in 2024 to about $245 billion by 2035 without structural change, and that ASEAN Power Grid links would need about $27 billion in investment by 2040. 2

Centre · 1The Philippines holds the rotating ASEAN chairmanship and will host the 48th ASEAN Summit and related summits on Oct. 27-29, bringing together leaders from the 11-member bloc and dialogue partners. 1