NBC News/Telemundo poll: Latino voters turn against Trump and GOP ahead of midterms
A new NBC News/Telemundo poll finds Trump's approval among Latino voters at 27% and Democrats leading the congressional ballot 59%-35%, a reversal of 2024 gains. Democrats' own image has not improved.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2A new NBC News/Telemundo poll found Latino voters, who helped return Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, turning against him ahead of the 2026 midterms. NBC NewsLC “Now, they are turning on him, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll” Read at NBC News ↗ NewsweekN “are turning away from him ahead of November's midterm elections, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2Trump's approval rating among Latino voters is 27%, and Democrats lead 59%-35% on which party Latino voters want in control of Congress, double their lead at this point in 2024 but short of the 43-point lead in 2018. NBC NewsLC “Democrats have a 24-point lead on whom Latino voters want to see in control of Congress, 59%-35%.”“it’s not nearly as wide as the 43-point lead the party enjoyed at this point in the 2018 midterms” Read at NBC News ↗ NewsweekN “Trump holds a 27 percent approval rating among Latino voters overall, while 69 percent disapprove of his job performance.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2Disapproval is highest on the cost of living (78%) and the economy (74%), with 69% disapproving on immigration. About two-thirds say his deportation policies have gone too far; NBC reports 22% say he has struck the right approach. NBC NewsLC “Two-thirds say Trump’s immigration enforcement measures have gone too far, 22% say he’s struck the right approach” Read at NBC News ↗ NewsweekN “Seventy-four percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, 78 percent disapprove of his handling of the cost of living and 69 percent disapprove of his handling of immigration.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Mixed · 2Latino voters now give Democrats a 21-point advantage on handling the economy, versus a 4-point Trump edge over Kamala Harris in 2024. Inflation and the cost of living is the top issue (33%), and 63% say their family's income is falling behind it. NBC NewsLC “Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question.”“inflation and the cost of living ranked as the most important issue to 33% of Latino voters” Read at NBC News ↗ NewsweekN “63 percent said their household income is falling behind the cost of living” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek focused on Latino men, whose Trump approval is 33% (64% disapprove). Democrats lead 53%-39% among them, against 62%-31% among Latino women. NewsweekN “Trump's approval rating among Latino men stands at 33 percent, while 64 percent disapprove of his job performance.”“Among Latino men, Democrats hold a narrower but still significant 16-point advantage, 53 percent to 39 percent.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2The results are not uniformly good for Democrats: their image has not improved in two years (Newsweek puts negative views at 42%, up 4 points from 2024), and Republican support among Latinos remains higher than in any NBC poll before the 2024 cycle. NBC NewsLC “Republicans are pulling more Latino support than in any NBC News poll before the 2024 election cycle, too, dating back to 2012.” Read at NBC News ↗ NewsweekN “42 percent have a negative view of it, a 4-point increase from 2024” Read at Newsweek ↗
Left · 1The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 by Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo (Hart Research Associates) and Republican pollster Micah Roberts (Public Opinion Strategies). Roberts called Latinos "the swingiest of swing groups" and the reversal "stunning", saying "2024 was the outlier". NBC NewsLC “Roberts referred to Latino voters as “the swingiest of swing groups,” calling the reversal since 2024 “stunning.””““What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier,” he said” Read at NBC News ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek reports the survey covered 800 registered Latino voters, by phone and text-message online survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points. NewsweekN “The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.”“surveyed 800 registered Latino voters from September 21 to 28” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2The shift matters for the midterms: Republicans drew new heavily Latino districts in Florida and Texas that looked deep red on 2024 results but are shaping up to be competitive, and statewide races in Texas, Nevada and elsewhere will also be affected. NBC NewsLC “In Florida and Texas, the party drew new, heavily Latino districts that looked deep red by the 2024 results” Read at NBC News ↗ NewsweekN “especially in competitive House districts and statewide races in Texas, Nevada and Florida” Read at Newsweek ↗
Centre · 1The White House did not respond to Newsweek's request on this poll; in earlier statements spokesperson Davis Ingle said Nov. 5, 2024 was "the ultimate poll". Newsweek also cites CNN's Harry Enten, Civiqs and a UnidosUS poll showing weaker Trump approval among Latino men, and academics Matt Barreto and Charles Venator-Santiago, who tie the decline to affordability and ICE enforcement. NewsweekN “Newsweek reached out to the White House, Hispanic Federation and Voto Latino for comment by email Sunday.”“was “the ultimate poll” when “nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump”“Latinos, men in particular, are viewing election through the lens of affordability.”” Read at Newsweek ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- NBC News, the poll's sponsor, leads with the reversal as a major opportunity for Democrats, with detailed numbers and voter interviews.
- Emphasis
- Cost of living, deportation policy, comparison to 2018 and 2022, and Republican districts in Florida and Texas now competitive; also caveats for Democrats.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not give breakdown by gender or an outside-poll comparison.
- Charged language
- “striking reversal”“brutal”“cold”
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Newsweek recasts the NBC poll around Latino men who powered Trump's 2024 win, adding outside polls and expert comment.
- Emphasis
- Gender breakdown, Enten, Civiqs and UnidosUS data, ICE shootings, and a White House response from earlier statements.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Gives less on the 2018 comparison and individual voter accounts.
- Charged language
- “adios amigos”“cool on him”
Right1 outlet
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- The NBC News/Telemundo poll was conducted Sept. 21-28, 2026.
- Trump's approval among Latino voters is 27%.
- Democrats lead 59%-35% on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters, double their 2024 lead.
- Democrats now lead by 21 points on handling the economy, reversing a 4-point Trump edge in 2024.
- Democrats' own image among Latinos has not improved.
Donald Trump person
Via White House spokesperson Davis Ingle in earlier statements, the administration says the 2024 election was the 'ultimate poll' and that Trump is delivering on his agenda.
“was “the ultimate poll” when “nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump” — Newsweek
Republican Party party
Republican pollster Micah Roberts says the poll shows Latinos ready to change who controls Congress and warns of reversals in heavily Latino districts.
““In a lot of the heavily Hispanic and Latino districts across the country that Trump and Republicans did well” — NBC News
Latino voters topic
Poll respondents cite prices and deportations; 54% say their vote is meant as a signal of opposition to Trump.
“54 percent saying their vote is intended as a signal of opposition to Trump” — Newsweek
Left1 article
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Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans
Critical Presents the poll as a sharp turn against Trump and Republicans and an opening for Democrats, with caveats about Democratic weakness.
Centre1 article
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Latino Men Who Powered Trump's 2024 Win Cool on Him in New Poll
Mixed Narrows the poll to Latino men and supplements it with other polling and expert commentary, noting the White House response.
- 4 Oct 14:00 First NBC NewsLC Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans
- 4 Oct 17:30 +3h 31m NewsweekN Latino Men Who Powered Trump's 2024 Win Cool on Him in New Poll
- 4 Oct 17:32 +3h 33m Fox NewsR Latino voters swing back to Democrats ahead of midterm elections: poll
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.