Two polls put Le Pen first in 2027 French presidential race, at 35-38%
Two separate polls published this week show Marine Le Pen leading the first round of France's April 2027 presidential election, at 35-37% (Toluna Harris Interactive) and 37-38% (Odoxa). Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second in the Odoxa survey.
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The story, neutrally told
Centre · 1A Toluna Harris Interactive survey published by broadcaster RTL on Monday puts Marine Le Pen of the National Rally at 35% to 37% in the first round of the 2027 presidential election, depending on which candidates are included. Anadolu AgencyN “The latest survey by Toluna Harris Interactive puts Le Pen at 35% to 37% in the April 18 first round of voting, depending on the candidates included in the race.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Right · 1A separate Odoxa poll reported by Reuters on Wednesday has Le Pen first with 37% or 38% depending on the scenario tested, based on 12,000 people surveyed between September 24 and October 7. The Straits TimesRC “Le Pen would top the first-round vote with either 37% or 38% depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Odoxa in a survey carried out among 12,000 people between September 24 and October 7.” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Right · 1In the Odoxa poll, the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second with 18% or 18.5%, and was tested against a single centrist candidate: Édouard Philippe would get 17% and Gabriel Attal 11%, both being former prime ministers under Emmanuel Macron. The Straits TimesRC “Melenchon would come second with 18% or 18.5% in each of the two scenarios.”“Philippe is seen getting 17% of the votes, while Attal would get only 11%.” Read at The Straits Times ↗
Right · 1Reuters reports that Odoxa sees Le Pen beating Mélenchon easily in a run-off, and also winning, by a narrower margin, against Philippe. The Straits TimesRC “Le Pen is seen beating Melenchon easily in a run-off and also winning, albeit with a more narrow margin, if she faced Philippe.” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Centre · 1The Harris Interactive poll found Le Pen's support unchanged despite allegations about National Rally leader Jordan Bardella: Mediapart reported antisemitic writings attributed to him from 2013, which he denies, about two weeks before the poll. Anadolu AgencyN “Bardella, who heads Le Pen’s National Rally, has denied allegations concerning antisemitic writings attributed to him in 2013 and reported by investigative outlet Mediapart.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1In that survey 51% said Le Pen would make a good president (up 6 points) against 47% for Bardella, and 54% thought she could keep her promises (up 6 points) against 50% for Bardella. Anadolu AgencyN “Some 51% of respondents said Le Pen would make a good president, up 6 percentage points from the previous survey.”“Meanwhile, 54% said Le Pen is capable of keeping her promises, compared with 50% for Bardella.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Mixed · 2Macron is barred by term limits from running again, and Reuters says his growing unpopularity has hollowed out France's centrist ground. Anadolu AgencyN “In next year’s elections, current French President Emmanuel Macron is constitutionally barred from seeking another term due to term limits.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ The Straits TimesRC “The growing unpopularity of Macron, as he comes to the end of his two terms as president, has hollowed out France's centrist political ground.” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Right · 1The first round is due on April 18, 2027, with a second round on May 2; Le Pen and Mélenchon have each run in 2012, 2017 and 2022, and Le Pen lost the 2017 and 2022 run-offs to Macron. The Straits TimesRC “The first round of the presidential vote is due on April 18, with the decisive second-round due on May 2.”“She made it to the run-off in 2017 and 2022, but lost to Macron.” Read at The Straits Times ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Anadolu frames the story around Le Pen holding her lead despite the Bardella antisemitism allegations, comparing her with Bardella on leadership measures.
- Emphasis
- Bardella controversy and Le Pen's rising leadership ratings.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention Mélenchon or centrist rivals.
- Charged language
- “far-right”
- For example
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“Marine Le Pen, a leading figure of France’s far-right National Rally party, remains ahead in polling for the spring 2027 presidential election” — Anadolu Agency
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Reuters copy, carried by the Straits Times, frames the poll as growing polarisation between Le Pen and Mélenchon as Macron's era ends.
- Emphasis
- Momentum for both extremes, a weakened centre, and run-off scenarios.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention the Bardella allegations.
- Charged language
- “hard-left”“far-right”“hollowed out”
- For example
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“French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon are gaining momentum ahead of next year's presidential election” — The Straits Times
What every side reports
- Marine Le Pen leads first-round polling for the 2027 French presidential election.
- The first round is on April 18 and the second round on May 2.
- Emmanuel Macron cannot seek another term.
Where accounts differ
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Le Pen's first-round level
- Centre
- Anadolu reports Toluna Harris Interactive at 35-37%.
- Right
- Straits Times (Reuters) reports Odoxa at 37-38%; these are different polls with different methods, not a direct conflict.
Marine Le Pen person
Presented as the clear first-round front-runner in both polls, with improved ratings on leadership.
“Some 51% of respondents said Le Pen would make a good president, up 6 percentage points from the previous survey.” — Anadolu Agency
Jordan Bardella person
Denies the 2013 antisemitic writings reported by Mediapart; trails Le Pen on leadership measures.
“Bardella, who heads Le Pen’s National Rally, has denied allegations concerning antisemitic writings attributed to him in 2013” — Anadolu Agency
Jean-Luc Mélenchon person
Shown second in the Odoxa poll at 18-18.5%; has never reached a run-off.
“Melenchon has already run three times for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022 but has never managed to reach the second round.” — The Straits Times
Emmanuel Macron person
Barred from running again; his unpopularity is described as hollowing out the centre.
“The growing unpopularity of Macron, as he comes to the end of his two terms as president, has hollowed out France's centrist political ground.” — The Straits Times
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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France’s far-right Le Pen leads 2027 presidential poll despite Bardella controversy
Neutral Poll report centred on Le Pen's steady lead despite the Bardella allegations.
Right1 article
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The Straits TimesRC · · via Reuters
Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows
Neutral Reuters wire report on polarisation and the squeezed centre ahead of 2027.
- 14 Oct 15:41 First Anadolu AgencyN France’s far-right Le Pen leads 2027 presidential poll despite Bardella controversy
- 14 Oct 17:06 +1h 25m The Straits TimesRC Le Pen and Melenchon gain momentum ahead of French 2027 election, poll shows via Reuters
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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