Poll shows Graham and Andrews neck-and-neck in South Carolina Senate race
A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters shows Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews essentially tied in South Carolina's Senate race days before the 3 November midterms. Outlets differ on whether it shows a tie or a sub-one-point Graham lead.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2A New York Times poll of 707 likely voters, conducted Oct. 19-26, shows Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews in a very close race for South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat. Washington ExaminerR “The New York Times interviewed 707 likely voters between Oct. 19 and 26” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ NewsweekN “The poll surveyed 707 likely voters in the state from October 19-26, 2026, with a 4.3 percent margin of error.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2The Washington Examiner reports that Graham led by less than 1 percentage point, while Newsweek reports the poll, from the Times and Siena Research Institute, has the two tied at 48% with 3% undecided. Washington ExaminerR “Graham led Andrews by less than 1 percentage point, according to a New York Times poll conducted last week among likely voters.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ NewsweekN “shows that Graham and Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews are tied at 48 percent and 3 percent don't know.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2Graham was appointed to the Senate in July after the sudden death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, then won a primary against Rep. Ralph Norman after Trump urged her to run; she had never held elected office before her appointment. Washington ExaminerR “She later decided to run for a full term at the urging of President Donald Trump, winning a bitter primary against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC).” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ NewsweekN “Following his death, Darline was sworn into his seat just three days later, with the backing of Trump.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Centre · 1Newsweek says Lindsey Graham died at 71 of aortic dissection, according to a preliminary examination by the D.C. Medical Examiner; his office had described a "brief and sudden illness." NewsweekN “He died in July at 71 years old, following what his office described as a "brief and sudden illness."” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2Andrews leads among independents, 57% to 37%, and women (54% to 43%), while Graham leads among men (55% to 40%) and holds 89% of 2024 Trump voters; Andrews draws 7-8% of them or of Republicans, according to the two reports. Washington ExaminerR “Andrews also holds an advantage among independent voters, with 57% supporting her compared with 37% for Graham.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ NewsweekN “The survey shows that 89 percent of 2024 Trump voters backed Graham compared to 8 percent of Trump voters who support Andrews.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Mixed · 2Voters favoured Andrews on the economy (51% to 43%, per Newsweek) and on who would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians (49% to 46%), while Graham led on immigration, 50% to 44%. NewsweekN “51 percent think Andrews would do a better job on the economy compared to 43 percent who say Graham would. On immigration, 50 percent said Graham would do a better job versus 44 percent who said Andrews would.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Washington ExaminerR “Asked which candidate would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians, 49% chose Andrews, compared with 46% who chose Graham.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗
Mixed · 2Newsweek puts Graham's favourability at 44% favourable to 41% unfavourable and Andrews's at 45% to 29%; the Examiner says about a quarter of voters had not heard of Andrews or had no opinion, a much larger share than for Graham. NewsweekN “Andrews' favorability is 45 percent compared to a 29 percent unfavorable rating.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Washington ExaminerR “About one-quarter of voters said they had not heard of Andrews or could not offer an opinion of her” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ Right · 1The Examiner adds that 51% said Graham lacked the right experience to be an effective senator, including 18% of Republicans, versus 54% who said Andrews had it; it recalls Graham's August debate remark, "I'm not that informed on national security." Washington ExaminerR “Fifty-one percent said Graham did not have the “right experience to be an effective senator,” including 18% of Republicans.”“Graham admitted, “I’m not that informed on national security,”” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ Mixed · 2Trump, who carried South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024, is due to rally with Graham in Rock Hill on Thursday. Washington ExaminerR “after he carried the state by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024. He rallied in South Carolina last week and is scheduled to return on Thursday.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ NewsweekN “Trump is set to rally with Graham on Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Mixed · 2Both note the Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican; the Examiner says no Democrat has won a South Carolina Senate seat since 1998 and RealClearPolitics averages Graham 47% to Andrews 44.6%, while Newsweek says Kalshi and Polymarket show Graham leading. Washington ExaminerR “They have not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.”“shows Graham at 47% and Andrews at 44.6% over the period from Sept. 28 to Oct. 26.” Read at Washington Examiner ↗ NewsweekN “prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket both show Graham leading on Wednesday afternoon.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek cites Trump's slipping approval, affordability concerns and the war in Iran as context, and two earlier InsiderAdvantage polls that showed Graham narrowly ahead (46%-45% in late September). NewsweekN “Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped”“An InsiderAdvantage poll showed Graham with 46 percent compared to Andrews' 45 percent” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Political scientists quoted by Newsweek say polls have trended toward Democrats, but D. Stephen Voss of the University of Kentucky says Republicans can hope their standing has bottomed out, and Grant Reeher of Syracuse University expects many Republicans to "come home" in the final days. NewsweekN “Polls have been trending toward the Democrats with increasing margins”“a lot of Republicans are likely to 'come home,' out of sympathy if nothing else.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Frames the poll as bad timing for Graham, a day before a Trump rally, within a national environment of slipping Trump approval.
- Emphasis
- Full crosstabs, favourability, prior polls, prediction markets and expert commentary on possible late Republican consolidation.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention Graham's lack of elected experience or the experience question results, or the 'less than 1 point' lead.
- Charged language
- “Troubling Poll”
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Presents the poll as exposing vulnerabilities for Graham, stressing her inexperience and weak qualification ratings, while noting the race remains hard for Democrats.
- Emphasis
- Experience and qualification numbers, Andrews's enthusiasm-driven support, Graham's debate gaffe, Democrats' long Senate drought.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not give the 48-48 topline, gender splits, favourability ratings or Graham's immigration advantage.
- Charged language
- “bitter primary”“neck-and-neck”
- For example
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“according to a new poll that points to vulnerabilities for Graham as the midterm elections approach.” — Washington Examiner
“Despite the hopeful poll, the race remains challenging for Democrats.” — Washington Examiner
What every side reports
- The NYT poll surveyed 707 likely voters from Oct. 19-26.
- Andrews leads Graham 57% to 37% among independents.
- Andrews leads on the economy and on who would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians (49% to 46%).
- Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican.
- Trump is due to visit South Carolina on Thursday.
Where accounts differ
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Topline result of the NYT poll
- Centre
- Newsweek: Graham and Andrews tied at 48% each, 3% don't know.
- Right
- Washington Examiner: Graham led Andrews by less than 1 percentage point.
Annie Andrews person
The Democratic nominee, a physician, is shown by the poll with higher favourability than Graham and an edge on the economy and experience; her campaign did not comment in the coverage.
“Newsweek reached out to Graham and Andrews' campaigns via email on Wednesday for comment.” — Newsweek
“By comparison, 54% said Andrews had the right experience, including 22% of Republicans.” — Washington Examiner
Lindsey Graham person
The late senator is covered as Graham's brother and predecessor; his death in July led to her appointment, and he had a close relationship with Trump despite friction with some MAGA voters.
“Graham’s late brother was a prominent four-term senator who maintained a close relationship with Trump” — Washington Examiner
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Darline Graham Hit with Troubling Poll One Day Before Trump Rally
Neutral Data-heavy account of the tied poll ahead of the Trump rally, with expert caveats about late shifts.
Right1 article
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South Carolina polling has Andrews and Graham neck-and-neck in final sprint to Election Day
Mixed Poll-driven report highlighting Graham's vulnerabilities and inexperience while cautioning the race remains tough for Democrats.
- 28 Oct 12:45 First Washington ExaminerR South Carolina polling has Andrews and Graham neck-and-neck in final sprint to Election Day
- 29 Oct 00:13 +11h 28m NewsweekN Darline Graham Hit with Troubling Poll One Day Before Trump Rally
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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