Oregon governor race: Kotek and Drazan in a statistical tie in late polling

Centre · 1A DHM Research poll for The Oregonian/OregonLive, conducted September 24 to October 1 among 549 likely voters, found Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek at 46% and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan at 44%, with Pacific Green candidate Brett Smith at 3% and 7% undecided; the margin of error is 4.2 points. 1 Centre · 1Newsweek called it the first independent poll since spring with Kotek in front, after Drazan's lead in public polling narrowed from 4 points in June to 1 point in late September. 1 Right · 1Fox News described the latest public polls as a margin-of-error race in the rematch of the 2022 contest, which Kotek won by less than four points. 2

Mixed · 2A Republican has not won the Oregon governorship since Victor Atiyeh won re-election in 1982, and Republicans see the race as a rare pickup chance in a year when the party is mostly defending seats. 1 2 Mixed · 2Ratings have shifted toward Republicans: Newsweek reports the Cook Political Report moved the race to "Lean Democrat" in September (Sabato's Crystal Ball has it at "Likely Democrat"), and Fox News Power Rankings also moved it from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. 1 2 Centre · 1Other polls cited by Newsweek: a GBAO survey for Kotek's campaign (800 likely voters, October 1-4) had Kotek at 46% and Drazan at 42%, while Drazan's own pollster had her up 48% to 44% in late June; DHM's two earlier surveys showed Drazan up 2 and 1 points. 1

Centre · 1Both candidates are viewed unfavourably by many voters: in the Oregonian poll 39% viewed Drazan positively and 47% negatively, while Kotek was at 36% positive and 60% negative. Kotek led 56% to 33% in the Portland area. 1 Centre · 1DHM's John Horvick said the shift could come from Democrats who dislike Kotek but will not back Drazan and are settling on the governor as Election Day nears. 1 Mixed · 2Kotek's campaign is trying to tie Drazan to President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in the state; Kotek communications director Federico Araujo told Newsweek that voters see Drazan as a "MAGA extremist" and told Fox News Digital that Drazan is "ready to open the door to Trump's agenda". 1 2

Mixed · 2Drazan is campaigning on local issues such as homelessness, housing, taxes, schools and cost of living, and on the case for ending single-party control; her campaign strategist Trey Rosser pointed to Kotek's poor favourability as proof voters want new leadership. 2 1 Mixed · 2Newsweek noted the race has drawn neither a Trump endorsement nor significant Republican Governors Association spending; Drazan told Fox News Digital the RGA is now investing in the race, while acknowledging that the sitting governor has a significant fundraising advantage. 1 2 Right · 1A Democratic Governors Association spokesperson, Johanna Warshaw, said Kotek has the advantage and claimed the RGA is leaving Drazan's "broke campaign out to dry". 2

Centre · 1Oregon votes entirely by mail, and county officials begin mailing ballots for the November 3 election this week; the candidates' first debate was held October 1 in Eugene. 1